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Model picks & player props
Miami Marlins
VS
New York Yankees

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 12, 2:50AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 5 Apr 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
15
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 10 (Total Runs)
The model graded 35 markets for Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $304 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 52.1%, fair odds 1.92, book price +204, model edge +19.2%. Tip-off Sun 5 Apr 2026, 5:35PM at Yankee Stadium.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
14.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Miami Marlins

  • Kyle Stowers 1BOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut

Probable pitcher

Eury Perez SP

New York Yankees

  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Chris Paddack Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Judge NYY Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Giancarlo Stanton NYY Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jakob Marsee Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cody Bellinger LAD Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L55-0

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L55-0

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Miami MarlinsNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs Miami Marlins L55-0

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.8 runs/gm.

Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 35 betting markets for Miami Marlins at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 15 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
15
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 35 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 34 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2ATLHome
W5–4ATLHome
W3–2ATLHome
L1–3STLHome
W2–0STLHome
Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W12–3LAAHome
W7–0LAAHome
L3–4LAAHome
L3–11ATLAway
L1–4ATLAway

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 4.8 runs per game (5-0) while Miami Marlins are at 5.8 (3-2); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 0.8 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for Miami Marlins.

4.8
New York Yankees runs/G
5.8
Miami Marlins runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesMiami Marlins
Runs / game4.85.8
Hits / game3.65.4
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game2.01.6
Batter K / game5.24.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.82.2
Pitching K / game3.04.4
Walks allowed / game1.01.6
L5 record5-03-2

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Kyle Stowers 1BOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Ronny Henriquez RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for New York Yankees playing Miami Marlins. Includes analysis on key players like Xavier Edwards. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins stats and odds.

Xavier Edwards (NA) Over 0.5 Hits (-175)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Yankees prepare to host the Marlins, all eyes should be on Xavier Edwards, who has been turning heads lately. With a solid contact rate and a batting average that’s climbed steadily, he’s been a rising star in the lineup. Facing a Miami pitching staff that struggles with left-handed hitters, Edwards has an ideal opportunity to capitalize on his strengths today. He’s been consistently getting on base, and his approach at the plate suggests he’s well-positioned to find gaps in the Yankees’ defense. The Marlins’ tendency to give up hits, especially to dynamic players like Edwards, adds to the intrigue. With the Yankees’ powerful offense creating pressure, he’ll likely see plenty of pitches to hit. Expect him to notch at least one hit as he continues to ride this wave of momentum, making the 'Over 0.5' bet not just enticing, but likely a smart play.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Marlins vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Marlins. The most recent game between them was Sunday 5 April 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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