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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Judge is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +19.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 3:08PM UTC
MLB

Aaron Judge

NYY

+19.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -244 (1.41)
+19.4% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 439 of 781 right
OUT
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Judge (rib) has been cleared to begin light activities, which includes outdoor running and upper-body resistance work, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
updated Aug 5, 8:41PM UTC · 1d old
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Model Probability
90.3%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+19.4%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits90.3%70.9%1.11+19.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Judge (NYY) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Yankees square off against the Royals, all eyes will be on Aaron Judge, but don't be surprised if he struggles to find his rhythm at the plate tonight. The big slugger has been facing some fierce pitching lately, and with Kansas City's starter showing impressive form, the odds might not be in Judge's favor. Consider that the Royals' pitching staff has been quietly effective, especially against right-handed hitters. Judge's recent performance reflects a troubling trend, where he’s been hitting well under the radar. In the past week, he’s averaged less than one hit per game, a stark reminder that even the best can have off nights. With Judge projected to record just 0.61 hits, the under on 1.5 seems like the play. As the game unfolds, the Royals' steady arms might just keep Judge grounded this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Aaron Judge MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Judge (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Judge is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.4% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees on Friday 17 April at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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