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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Judge is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On Batter - Hits, our numbers say this bet wins about 90 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 90%, implied 71%, edge +19.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 0.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 0.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 27, 7:37PM UTC
MLB

Aaron Judge

NYY

+19.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+19.4% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 936 of 1,930 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Manager Aaron Boone said Judge (ribs) is scheduled to hit in the batting cage Tuesday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
updated Aug 25, 8:35PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
90 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 90.3% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +19.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits90.3%70.9%1.11+19.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Judge (NYY) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Yankees square off against the Royals, all eyes will be on Aaron Judge, but don't be surprised if he struggles to find his rhythm at the plate tonight. The big slugger has been facing some fierce pitching lately, and with Kansas City's starter showing impressive form, the odds might not be in Judge's favor. Consider that the Royals' pitching staff has been quietly effective, especially against right-handed hitters. Judge's recent performance reflects a troubling trend, where he’s been hitting well under the radar. In the past week, he’s averaged less than one hit per game, a stark reminder that even the best can have off nights. With Judge projected to record just 0.61 hits, the under on 1.5 seems like the play. As the game unfolds, the Royals' steady arms might just keep Judge grounded this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Aaron Judge is averaging 1.8 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.6 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

1.8
Hits
0.0
HR
0.6
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.4
Walks
1.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Aaron Judge has gone over 1.5 total bases in 0% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.50%
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Aaron Judge is averaging 1.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 2.0 in home games, including his recent form against TOR.

1.8
Hits · Overall
2.0
Hits · Home
1.8
Hits · vs TOR
0.0
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Home
0.6
HR · vs TOR
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Judge (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Judge is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.4% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees on Friday 17 April at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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