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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Judge is Over 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored.
On Batter - Runs Scored, our numbers say this bet wins about 41 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 41%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 SOlanded 6 of the last 10
Under 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Under 1.50 2Blanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 18, 7:12AM UTC
MLB

Aaron Judge

NYY

Aaron Judge has one live pick today: Batter - Runs Scored Over 0.5 that pays $183 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Batter - Runs Scored Over 0.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Sat 19 Sep, 1:40AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 89 of 195 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
DAY-TO-DAY
Judge was removed from Wednesday's game against the Twins in the sixth inning due to right lower leg tightness, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
updated Sep 16, 8:18PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
41 in 100
Predicted
0.8 Batter - Runs Scored
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 41.0% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap -13.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Runs Scored41.0%—54.6%2.44-13.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Batter - Runs Scored (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees are facing off at Chase Field, and Aaron Judge has a good chance to score at least one run. The Yankees are in solid form, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring well against left-handed pitchers. Judge has been a consistent contributor, averaging almost two strikeouts per game but also managing to get on base regularly. Judge's ability to get on base at Yankee Stadium suggests he can find a way to cross home plate at least once. The risk is that the game could be tightly contested, but with the way Judge has been performing, he's worth a shot to score over 0.5 runs.

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Pick History & Track Record

Aaron Judge's lines for Sat 19 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Batter Runs Scored 0.5
Day to dayHow many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?

Aaron Judge's batter runs scored line is 0.5.

Batter Runs Scored 1.5
Day to dayHow many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?

Aaron Judge's batter runs scored line is 1.5.

Batter RBIs 0.5
+145 best over price · 3 booksDay to dayHow many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?

Aaron Judge's batter rbis line is 0.5, best over price +145 across 3 books.

Batter Home Runs 1.5
+260 best over price · 5 booksDay to dayHow many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?

Aaron Judge's batter home runs line is 1.5, best over price +260 across 5 books.

Batter Hits 2.5
-217 best over price · 6 booksWent over in 5 of the last 10 gamesDay to dayHow many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?

Aaron Judge's batter hits line is 2.5, best over price -217 across 6 books. He has gone over it in 5 of his last 10 games.

Batter Home Runs 2.5
+260 best over price · 5 booksDay to dayHow many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?

Aaron Judge's batter home runs line is 2.5, best over price +260 across 5 books.

Recent form (last 5 games)

Aaron Judge is averaging 1.8 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.6 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

1.8
Hits
0.0
HR
0.6
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.4
Walks
1.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Aaron Judge has gone over 1.5 total bases in 20% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.520%
o2.510%
o3.510%
o4.50%
o5.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Aaron Judge is averaging 1.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 2.0 in home games, including his recent form against TOR.

1.8
Hits · Overall
2.0
Hits · Home
1.8
Hits · vs TOR
0.0
HR · Overall
0.2
HR · Home
0.6
HR · vs TOR
Quick answers:How many home runs does Aaron Judge hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Sep 26 New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Batter - RBIs — — — Pending
16 Sep 26 New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
16 Sep 26 New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
16 Sep 26 New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs — — — Pending
16 Sep 26 New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
16 Sep 26 New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Judge (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Judge is Over 0.5 on Batter - Runs Scored. The model identifies a slight edge of -13.6% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday 19 September at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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