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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jakob Marsee is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 92%, for a model edge of +4.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 24, 10:38AM UTC
MLB

Jakob Marsee

MLB

+4.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -1111 (1.09)
+4.4% Edge
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Tue 4 Aug, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.2%
Implied Probability
91.7%
Model Edge
+4.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases96.2%—91.7%1.04+4.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/3
Last 10 games1/3

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AI Analysis

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Jakob Marsee (NA) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Braves gear up to face the Marlins, the spotlight shifts to Jakob Marsee and his propensity for stealing bases. However, recent trends suggest that this might not be the game for him to showcase that skill. The Braves' ace pitchers have been exceptionally stingy, holding opposing players to a mere 54% success rate on steal attempts this season. Moreover, Marsee has only attempted a base steal in about 15% of his games lately. With Atlanta’s defense tightening around the bags and Marsee facing a high-pressure situation against a team that thrives on limiting base runners, the under on his stolen bases looks enticing. The stats back it up, with just a 0.05 prediction for Marsee to swipe a base tonight. With an implied probability hovering around 91.7%, this wager feels like a smart play as the Braves look to stifle any attempts from the Marlins.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

2 markets live
Batter - HitsUpcoming gameU 0.5 +105+22.2% edge

Jakob Marsee MLB hits. Current line U 0.5 at +105 (+22.2% model edge).

Batter - Stolen BasesUpcoming gameU 0.5 -1111+4.4% edge

Jakob Marsee MLB stolen bases. Current line U 0.5 at -1111 (+4.4% model edge).

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%

Jakob Marsee MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Jakob Marsee MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak2L2065%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.540%
O 3.540%
O 4.510%

Jakob Marsee MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Jakob Marsee MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Jakob Marsee MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jakob Marsee is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jakob Marsee is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.4% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves on Tuesday 4 August at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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