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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 7:21AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 20 Jul 2025, 5:40PM
6
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline +128

The model graded 8 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $228 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 20 Jul 2025, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.4%
The price says43.9%
Best price+128
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Cincinnati Reds Lean56% chance +128
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 94%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Elly De La Cruz SSDay-to-day
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Michael Toglia 1BOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut

Probable pitcher

Chase Burns SP

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 3:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases
Brandon Nimmo NYM Batter - Stolen Bases

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Cincinnati Reds L51-4

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Cincinnati Reds L51-4

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.0runs we expect
L5 RF0.4L5 RA1.0Home L51-4vs Cincinnati Reds L51-4

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.4 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets — 6 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 1 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–6HOUHome
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5CHCAway
L5–17CHCAway
W10–8CHCAway
L1–3SFAway
W10–9SFAway

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while Cincinnati Reds are at 8.0 (2-3); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for Cincinnati Reds.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsCincinnati Reds
Runs / game4.48.0
Hits / game8.212.4
Home runs / game1.42.0
Walks drawn / game3.06.0
Batter K / game6.09.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.64.2
Pitching K / game10.67.4
Walks allowed / game3.23.4
L5 record4-12-3

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: New York Mets won 2, Cincinnati Reds won 4.

DateNew York MetsCincinnati RedsWinner
Jun 1791New York Mets
Jun 1635Cincinnati Reds
Jun 15012Cincinnati Reds
May 2742New York Mets
May 2627Cincinnati Reds
May 2527Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Elly De La Cruz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3BOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Michael Toglia 1BOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Brandon Nimmo (NYM) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Brandon Nimmo in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Nimmo has not recorded a single stolen base, either at home or against the Cincinnati Reds. His overall and home hit streaks, while impressive, do not impact his stolen base performance, as he has shown no tendency to steal bases even when he is hitting well. This pattern remains consistent across different contexts, including overall games, home games, and games against the Reds. Therefore, based on his recent performance, it is statistically unlikely that Nimmo will steal a base in the upcoming game.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Mets, or as Mets vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Sunday 20 July 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 6 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 24 meetings on record
Cincinnati Reds 14–10 across the last 24 meetings · these games average 7.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
17 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds1–9New York Mets
16 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds5–3Cincinnati Reds
15 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds12–0Cincinnati Reds
27 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
26 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets2–7Cincinnati Reds
25 May 2026Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets2–7Cincinnati Reds
7 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds3–2Cincinnati Reds
6 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds6–3Cincinnati Reds
5 Sep 2025New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds4–5New York Mets
20 Jul 2025Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets3–2New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 24 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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