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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:30PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 20 Jul 2025, 5:40PM
6
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Cincinnati Reds (Moneyline)
The model graded 8 markets for Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $228 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 56.4%, fair odds 1.77, book price +128, model edge +12.6%. Tip-off Sun 20 Jul 2025, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brandon Nimmo NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2Free board6-6

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
3.3runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets — 6 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway
Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7WSHAway
L2–8WSHAway
L3–5WSHAway
W6–5ATHHome
W3–2ATHHome

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while Cincinnati Reds are at 8.0 (2-3); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for Cincinnati Reds.

4.4
New York Mets runs/G
8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsCincinnati Reds
Runs / game4.48.0
Hits / game8.212.4
Home runs / game1.42.0
Walks drawn / game3.06.0
Batter K / game6.09.8
Earned runs allowed / game2.64.2
Pitching K / game10.67.4
Walks allowed / game3.23.4
L5 record4-12-3

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 1, Cincinnati Reds won 2.

DateNew York MetsCincinnati RedsWinner
Jun 1791New York Mets
Jun 1635Cincinnati Reds
Jun 15012Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Nick Lodolo SPOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Brandon Nimmo (NYM) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Brandon Nimmo in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Nimmo has not recorded a single stolen base, either at home or against the Cincinnati Reds. His overall and home hit streaks, while impressive, do not impact his stolen base performance, as he has shown no tendency to steal bases even when he is hitting well. This pattern remains consistent across different contexts, including overall games, home games, and games against the Reds. Therefore, based on his recent performance, it is statistically unlikely that Nimmo will steal a base in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Reds vs Mets, or as Mets vs Reds. The most recent game between them was Sunday 20 July 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 6 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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