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Model picks & player props
MLB
Target Field, Minneapolis
Outdoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins and backs Under 8.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $226.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Under 8.5 total runs
Under 8.5 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$22.60Best price+126
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win45.9%
The price says42.8%

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $226 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:11 PM ET at Target Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 8.5 Lean46% chance +126
Total Runs Members only Long-shot38% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean56% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean41% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean57% chance Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 75% Members
Batter - Walks × 7 props Highup to 96% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 10 props Highup to 89% Members
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 8 props Highup to 83% Members
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 87% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 7 props Highup to 83% Members
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 88% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 2 props Highup to 76% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 7-5. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
9
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,743+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TwinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Minnesota Twins

  • Walker Jenkins CFOut
  • Byron Buxton CFOut
  • Jeff Hoffman RPOut
  • Trevor Larnach LFOut
  • Mike Paredes SPOut
  • Cole Sands RPOut
  • David Festa SPOut
  • Mick Abel SPOut
  • Anthony Banda RPOut
  • Pablo Lopez SPOut
Availability updated Oct 1, 6:28PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andrew Painter Pitcher - Walks
Luke Keaschall MIN Batter - Walks
Byron Buxton MIN Batter - Total Bases
Andrew Painter Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMinnesota TwinsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Minnesota Twins moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineMinnesota Twins run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Minnesota Twins spread form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Minnesota Twins total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMinnesota Twins team totalNo line posted
5.4runs we expect
L5 RF5.4L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Minnesota Twins team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.4 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — recent results

Minnesota Twins have won 4 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Minnesota Twins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–4TEXHome
W10–2TEXHome
L2–6TEXHome
W3–2SFAway
W4–2SFAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Minnesota Twins are scoring 1.8 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.6 (2-3); Minnesota Twins pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for Philadelphia Phillies.

1.8
Minnesota Twins runs/G
2.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesMinnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game1.82.6
Hits / game2.85.2
Home runs / game0.00.2
Walks drawn / game0.41.6
Batter K / game0.82.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.62.0
Pitching K / game1.84.0
Walks allowed / game0.41.2
L5 record2-32-3

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: Minnesota Twins won 1, Philadelphia Phillies won 4.

DateMinnesota TwinsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 1657Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1519Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 1317Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 1702Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 876Minnesota Twins

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Minnesota Twins
PlayerStatus
Walker Jenkins CFOUT
Byron Buxton CFOUT
Jeff Hoffman RPOUT
Trevor Larnach LFOUT
Mike Paredes SPOUT
Cole Sands RPOUT
David Festa SPOUT
Mick Abel SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 RBIs (-294), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Twins, or as Twins vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at Target Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins head-to-head record

Final scores · 19 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 11–6 across the last 19 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 7.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 16 Aug 2026, Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins: the Phillies won 7-5.

DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins5–7Philadelphia Phillies
15 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins1–9Philadelphia Phillies
13 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins1–7Philadelphia Phillies
17 Mar 2026Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies2–0Philadelphia Phillies
8 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins7–6Minnesota Twins
28 Sep 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies2–1Philadelphia Phillies
27 Sep 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies0–5Minnesota Twins
26 Sep 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies3–1Philadelphia Phillies
21 Mar 2025Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies6–3Philadelphia Phillies
10 Mar 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins1–4Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 19 meetings on file.

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