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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 12, 10:11PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Target Field, Minneapolis
Outdoor
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 11:30PM
20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 6 (Total Runs)
The model graded 21 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $374 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 42.1%, fair odds 2.38, book price +274, model edge +15.4%. Tip-off Thu 13 Aug 2026, 11:30PM at Target Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 574 of 1,083 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 12
Under 5.5
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $342
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
12
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP

Minnesota Twins

  • Byron Buxton CFOut
  • Joe Ryan SPOut
  • Mike Paredes SPOut
  • Cole Sands RPOut
  • David Festa SPOut
  • Mick Abel SPOut
  • Anthony Banda RPOut
  • Pablo Lopez SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zebby Matthews SP
Availability updated Aug 12, 6:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Kaelen Culpepper Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

2 markets live
Total RunsGame total · Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesUnder 6 +274
6.9proj. runs
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Minnesota Twins total runs vs Philadelphia Phillies is live and our model makes it 42% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 6.9.

Run LineMinnesota Twins run line-3 +367
-0.2proj. margin
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Minnesota Twins spread vs Philadelphia Phillies is live and our model makes it 27% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin -0.2.

MoneylineMinnesota TwinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Minnesota Twins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMinnesota Twins team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Minnesota Twins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — recent results

Minnesota Twins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Minnesota Twins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–5BALHome
W9–5BALHome
L3–4MILAway
L3–4MILAway
W8–6MILAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–2STLAway
W6–5STLAway
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Minnesota Twins are scoring 1.8 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.6 (2-3); Minnesota Twins pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for Philadelphia Phillies.

1.8
Minnesota Twins runs/G
2.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesMinnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game1.82.6
Hits / game2.85.2
Home runs / game0.00.2
Walks drawn / game0.41.6
Batter K / game0.82.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.62.0
Pitching K / game1.84.0
Walks allowed / game0.41.2
L5 record2-32-3

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Minnesota Twins
PlayerStatus
Byron Buxton CFOUT
Joe Ryan SPOUT
Mike Paredes SPOUT
Cole Sands RPOUT
David Festa SPOUT
Mick Abel SPOUT
Anthony Banda RPOUT
Pablo Lopez SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins prediction for August 13, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 13, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Under 12.5 Total Runs (-435), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Twins, or as Twins vs Phillies. The next scheduled game is Thursday 13 August 2026 at Target Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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