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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Bell is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +10.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 9:13AM UTC
MLB

Josh Bell

WSN

+10.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -169 (1.59)
+10.6% Edge
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio · Outdoor
Mon 20 Jul, 10:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.5%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+10.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases73.5%—62.9%1.36+10.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Josh Bell (WSN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Guardians prepare to host the Twins, the spotlight turns to Josh Bell, who’s been navigating a rough patch at the plate. Despite his power potential, Bell has struggled recently, with just one extra-base hit in his last six games. The Twins’ pitching staff, led by a rejuvenated Sonny Gray, has been stifling left-handed hitters like Bell, limiting them to a measly .210 average. Moreover, Cleveland's offense has shown inconsistency, particularly against quality arms, which could further hinder Bell’s chances of racking up total bases. With Gray's ability to command the strike zone, Bell might find himself facing fewer pitches to drive. Given the current form and matchup dynamics, betting on Bell to stay under 1.5 total bases feels like the smart play here. Expect a disciplined outing from the Twins' ace to keep Bell in check tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2070%
O 0.570%
O 1.520%

Josh Bell MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.530%
O 2.530%
O 3.520%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.7 · hi 3 · lo 1
113

Josh Bell MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Josh Bell MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2075%
O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.550%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%

Josh Bell MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.510%

Josh Bell MLB rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Josh Bell MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2055%
O 0.550%

Josh Bell MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 26 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -169 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -141 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -161 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Runs Scored — — — Pending
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
21 Jun 26 Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Batter - Walks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Bell (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Bell is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.6% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians on Monday 20 July at Progressive Field, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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