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The latest Bet Better model pick for Byron Buxton is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +18.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 7, 3:07PM UTC
MLB

Byron Buxton

MIN

+18.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -128 (1.78)
+18.2% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota · Outdoor
Tue 28 Jul, 11:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 439 of 781 right
OUT
Buxton (hip) has yet to resume baseball activities since landing on the 10-day injured list July 29, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. "It's a little slower than what I expected, but I'm starting to pick it up a little more, do a little more things as far as loading, isometrics and weight training stuff, lifting," Buxton said Thursday. "Hopefully, relay that over to the field over a couple of days."
updated Aug 7, 1:16PM UTC
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Model Probability
74.4%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+18.2%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases74.4%56.2%1.34+18.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Byron Buxton (MIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-128)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Minnesota Twins gear up to face the Kansas City Royals on July 28, all eyes should be on Byron Buxton's performance. While he’s undoubtedly talented, recent trends suggest he might struggle to clear the 1.5 total bases line. The Royals' pitching staff has been surprisingly effective lately, especially against left-handed hitters, limiting opponents to a mere .240 average. Buxton, despite his flair for the dramatic, has been inconsistent at the plate, especially with a recent dip in form where he’s averaged just over one total base in his last few games. The matchup against a Kansas City team that knows how to neutralize power hitters could keep him grounded. Given the Royals' recent success in stifling extra-base hits and Buxton’s current rhythm, betting the under on his total bases feels like a savvy play in this tightly contested matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Byron Buxton MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Byron Buxton MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Byron Buxton MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Byron Buxton MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Byron Buxton (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Byron Buxton is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.2% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins on Tuesday 28 July at Target Field, Minneapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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