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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 11:21PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (Spread)
The model graded 20 markets for Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $320 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 70.6%, fair odds 1.42, book price +220, model edge +39.4%. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:40PM at Comerica Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 11.5 · $100 returned $400

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Detroit Tigers
+7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Brown SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Enmanuel De Jesus RPDay-to-day
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Drew Anderson SP
Availability updated Aug 12, 1:45AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L51-4Free board8-4

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L51-4

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Houston Astros L51-4

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers — recent results

Detroit Tigers have won 3 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–1SFAway
L2–5SFAway
W8–0SFAway
L2–4SEAAway
W11–0SEAAway
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–7SDAway
W6–3SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W7–2TORHome
L4–5TORHome

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Houston Astros are at 4.4 (4-1); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 3.4 for Houston Astros.

4.0
Detroit Tigers runs/G
4.4
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersHouston Astros
Runs / game4.04.4
Hits / game5.45.0
Home runs / game1.00.8
Walks drawn / game2.20.8
Batter K / game5.01.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.83.4
Pitching K / game3.64.0
Walks allowed / game0.42.4
L5 record3-24-1

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: Detroit Tigers won 2, Houston Astros won 5.

DateDetroit TigersHouston AstrosWinner
Jun 2857Houston Astros
Jun 2768Houston Astros
Jun 2680Detroit Tigers
Jun 2512Houston Astros
Jun 1724Houston Astros
Jun 1724Houston Astros
Jun 1693Detroit Tigers

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Enmanuel De Jesus RPDAY-TO-DAY
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Brant Hurter RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT
Matt Vierling CFOUT
Jack Flaherty SPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros stats and odds.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-233)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Spread Detroit Tigers +2.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Spread Houston Astros +1.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Sunday 28 June 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 7 meetings
Houston Astros 5–2 across the last 7 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
28 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers5–7Houston Astros
27 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers6–8Houston Astros
26 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers8–0Detroit Tigers
25 Jun 2026Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers1–2Houston Astros
17 Jun 2026Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros4–2Houston Astros
17 Jun 2026Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros4–2Houston Astros
16 Jun 2026Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros3–9Detroit Tigers
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