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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:54PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Comerica Park, Detroit
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (Spread)
For Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers (MLB), model win probability 70.6%, fair odds 1.42, book price +220, model edge +39.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 5:40PM at Comerica Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Detroit Tigers
5.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Detroit TigersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Hayden Wesneski SPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut

Probable pitcher

Tatsuya Imai SP

Detroit Tigers

  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Framber Valdez SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineDetroit TigersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L53-2

Detroit Tigers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineDetroit Tigers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L53-2ATS5-7

Detroit Tigers spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Detroit Tigers vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Detroit Tigers total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsDetroit Tigers team totalNo line posted
2.3implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L53-2

Detroit Tigers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Detroit Tigers are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while Houston Astros are at 4.4 (4-1); Detroit Tigers pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 3.4 for Houston Astros.

4.0
Detroit Tigers runs/G
4.4
Houston Astros runs/G
Last 5 gamesDetroit TigersHouston Astros
Runs / game4.04.4
Hits / game5.45.0
Home runs / game1.00.8
Walks drawn / game2.20.8
Batter K / game5.01.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.83.4
Pitching K / game3.64.0
Walks allowed / game0.42.4
L5 record3-24-1

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros stats and odds.</p>

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-233)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Spread Detroit Tigers 5.5 ✗ MISS
28 Jun 26 Spread Detroit Tigers 4.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread Detroit Tigers 3.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Moneyline Detroit Tigers ✗ MISS
28 Jun 26 Spread Detroit Tigers -1.5 ✗ MISS
28 Jun 26 Spread Detroit Tigers 1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2026 at Comerica Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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