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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 17, 3:47PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Mon 17 Aug 2026, 5:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: St. Louis Cardinals (Moneyline)
The model graded 20 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 71.5%, fair odds 1.40, book price -110, model edge +19.1%. Tip-off Mon 17 Aug 2026, 5:40PM at Great American Ball Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 736 of 1,481 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 16
Under 5.5
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $354
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Under on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Under
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

FanDuel
on Cincinnati Reds
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Hunter Dobbins SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut

Probable pitcher

Nick Lodolo SP
Availability updated Aug 17, 1:27PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 8 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability8 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

3 markets live
MoneylineSt. Louis Cardinals to win-110
72%model win %
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.0Away L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2Free board10-9

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline vs Cincinnati Reds is live and our model makes it 72% (HIGH); L5 record 3-2.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run line-1.5 +140
58%cover %
-2.6proj. margin
L5 RF2.0L5 RA1.0Away L52-3vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

St. Louis Cardinals spread vs Cincinnati Reds is live and our model makes it 58% (LEAN); proj. margin -2.6.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis CardinalsOver 9 -115
66%over %
10.9proj. runs
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2Free board15-13

Cincinnati Reds total runs vs St. Louis Cardinals is live and our model makes it 66% (HIGH); proj. runs 10.9.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs St. Louis Cardinals L53-2

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.4 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; St. Louis Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7MIAHome
L4–8MIAHome
W1–0MIAHome
W9–8CHWAway
L0–5CHWAway
St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–4CHCAway
W8–4CHCAway
L0–3CHCAway
W7–1PHIHome
W2–0PHIHome

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 8.0 runs per game (2-3) while St. Louis Cardinals are at 4.2 (1-4); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for St. Louis Cardinals.

8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
4.2
St. Louis Cardinals runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals
Runs / game8.04.2
Hits / game12.46.8
Home runs / game2.00.6
Walks drawn / game6.03.2
Batter K / game9.87.4
Earned runs allowed / game4.24.2
Pitching K / game7.45.8
Walks allowed / game3.43.6
L5 record2-31-4

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 3, St. Louis Cardinals won 5.

DateCincinnati RedsSt. Louis CardinalsWinner
Jul 2653Cincinnati Reds
Jul 2507St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 2542Cincinnati Reds
Jun 735St. Louis Cardinals
Jun 656St. Louis Cardinals
Jun 6310St. Louis Cardinals
May 2318St. Louis Cardinals
May 2376Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

8 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Ramon Urias 3BOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds — where the money went

Since betting opened on St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, the market has moved away from Under across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Under 8.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 8.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 9.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 9.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — St. Louis Cardinals -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Cincinnati Reds 1.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Our St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds prediction for August 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 17, 2026 our model has run St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-217), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Reds, or as Reds vs Cardinals. The next scheduled game is Monday 17 August 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
St. Louis Cardinals 5–3 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals3–5Cincinnati Reds
25 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals2–4Cincinnati Reds
25 Jul 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals7–0St. Louis Cardinals
7 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals5–3St. Louis Cardinals
6 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals10–3St. Louis Cardinals
6 Jun 2026Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals6–5St. Louis Cardinals
23 May 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds7–6Cincinnati Reds
23 May 2026St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds1–8St. Louis Cardinals
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