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Model picks & player props
Detroit Tigers
VS
Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 1:04AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM
1
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Detroit Tigers Moneyline +100

For Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox (MLB), this is the model’s pick — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win58.6%
The price says50.0%
Best price+100

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
Player props & full board
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit TigersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Detroit Tigers

  • Riley Greene LFOut
  • Matt Vierling CFOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Jack Flaherty SPOut
  • Kerry Carpenter RFOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Framber Valdez SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 9:52PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L54-1Free board8-6

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Detroit Tigers L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 1 betting market for Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox — 1 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

1
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 1 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; Detroit Tigers have won 2 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
L0–4MIAAway
W7–3MIAAway
Detroit Tigers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1LADHome
L1–2LADHome
L0–3TBHome
W4–1TBHome
L1–4TBHome

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.2 runs per game (4-1) while Detroit Tigers are at 2.8 (3-2); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Detroit Tigers.

5.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxDetroit Tigers
Runs / game5.22.8
Hits / game6.87.0
Home runs / game1.40.4
Walks drawn / game4.22.2
Batter K / game6.05.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.61.2
Pitching K / game6.45.4
Walks allowed / game2.81.4
L5 record4-13-2

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 5, Detroit Tigers won 4.

DateBoston Red SoxDetroit TigersWinner
May 640Boston Red Sox
May 5103Boston Red Sox
May 454Boston Red Sox
Apr 2086Boston Red Sox
Apr 1926Detroit Tigers
Apr 1814Detroit Tigers
Apr 1710Boston Red Sox
Mar 1027Detroit Tigers
Mar 6311Detroit Tigers

Who’s out or in doubt

24 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT
Detroit Tigers
PlayerStatus
Riley Greene LFOUT
Matt Vierling CFOUT
Brant Hurter RPOUT
Jack Flaherty SPOUT
Kerry Carpenter RFOUT
Wenceel Perez RFOUT
Will Vest RPOUT
Justin Verlander SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers stats and odds.

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers : Detroit Tigers Win (+100)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Detroit Tigers are a strong pick for this game due to their excellent defensive performance in recent matches. Over the last five games, they have allowed an average of just 1.8 runs overall and 2 runs while playing away. This is significantly lower than the 2.8 runs allowed by the Red Sox at home. Despite the Red Sox's strong offensive record, scoring an average of 5.2 runs per game, the Tigers' superior defense is likely to neutralize this advantage. Furthermore, the Tigers have proven their ability to win against the Red Sox, with a 3-2 record in their last five encounters. Therefore, the bet on Detroit Tigers in the Moneyline market is a calculated risk based on their defensive strength and past performance against the Red Sox.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Tigers vs Sox, or as Sox vs Tigers. The most recent game between them was Friday 26 September 2025 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 1 game pick for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 34 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 19–15 across the last 34 meetings · these games average 8.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 May 2026Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers0–4Boston Red Sox
5 May 2026Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers3–10Boston Red Sox
4 May 2026Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers4–5Boston Red Sox
20 Apr 2026Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox8–6Boston Red Sox
19 Apr 2026Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox2–6Detroit Tigers
18 Apr 2026Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox1–4Detroit Tigers
17 Apr 2026Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox1–0Boston Red Sox
10 Mar 2026Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox2–7Detroit Tigers
6 Mar 2026Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers11–3Detroit Tigers
28 Sep 2025Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox4–3Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 34 meetings on file.

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