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Model picks & player props
Detroit Tigers
VS
Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM
1
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Detroit Tigers (Moneyline)
For Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox (MLB), model win probability 58.6%, fair odds 1.71, book price +100, model edge +8.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM at Fenway Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
Player props & full board
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Detroit TigersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Detroit Tigers

  • Kerry Carpenter RFDay-to-day
  • Javier Baez SSOut
  • Jackson Jobe SPOut
  • Casey Mize SPDay-to-day
  • Will Vest RPOut
  • Bailey Horn RPOut
  • Burch Smith RPOut
  • Justin Verlander SPOut
  • Wenceel Perez RFOut
  • Parker Meadows CFOut
  • Trey Sweeney SSOut
  • Brant Hurter RPOut
  • Reese Olson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Jack Flaherty SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 5:08AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Detroit Tigers L54-1

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Detroit Tigers L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Detroit TigersNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
4.4implied team total
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs Detroit Tigers L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.2 runs per game (4-1) while Detroit Tigers are at 2.8 (3-2); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for Detroit Tigers.

5.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
2.8
Detroit Tigers runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxDetroit Tigers
Runs / game5.22.8
Hits / game6.87.0
Home runs / game1.40.4
Walks drawn / game4.22.2
Batter K / game6.05.2
Earned runs allowed / game2.61.2
Pitching K / game6.45.4
Walks allowed / game2.81.4
L5 record4-13-2

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers stats and odds.</p>

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers : Detroit Tigers Win (+100)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Detroit Tigers are a strong pick for this game due to their excellent defensive performance in recent matches. Over the last five games, they have allowed an average of just 1.8 runs overall and 2 runs while playing away. This is significantly lower than the 2.8 runs allowed by the Red Sox at home. Despite the Red Sox's strong offensive record, scoring an average of 5.2 runs per game, the Tigers' superior defense is likely to neutralize this advantage. Furthermore, the Tigers have proven their ability to win against the Red Sox, with a 3-2 record in their last five encounters. Therefore, the bet on Detroit Tigers in the Moneyline market is a calculated risk based on their defensive strength and past performance against the Red Sox.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 1 game pick for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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