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Model picks & player props
Colorado Rockies
VS
Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:16PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Mon 7 Jul 2025, 11:10PM
2
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
The model graded 3 markets for Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $289 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 41.9%, fair odds 2.39, book price +189, model edge +7.3%. Tip-off Mon 7 Jul 2025, 11:10PM at Fenway Park.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Colorado RockiesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Colorado Rockies

  • Jaden Hill RPOut
  • Jose Quintana SPOut
  • Jeff Criswell RPOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Gabriel Hughes SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHDay-to-day
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sonny Gray SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brenton Doyle COL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L52-3

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L52-3

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Colorado RockiesNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Colorado Rockies L52-3

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.0 runs/gm.

Colorado Rockies @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox — 2 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Colorado Rockies have won 1 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4ATHHome
L3–7ATHHome
W13–1ATHHome
W12–11CHWHome
W4–0CHWHome
Colorado Rockies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–7STLAway
L2–3STLAway
W8–6STLAway
L7–9TBHome
L0–4TBHome

Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.2 runs per game (4-1) while Colorado Rockies are at 4.3 (2-3); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Colorado Rockies.

5.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
4.3
Colorado Rockies runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxColorado Rockies
Runs / game5.24.3
Hits / game6.85.6
Home runs / game1.40.6
Walks drawn / game4.23.9
Batter K / game6.08.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.62.8
Pitching K / game6.45.1
Walks allowed / game2.83.2
L5 record4-12-3

Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 1, Colorado Rockies won 2.

DateBoston Red SoxColorado RockiesWinner
Jun 2468Colorado Rockies
Jun 2452Boston Red Sox
Jun 2323Colorado Rockies

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Adley Rutschman COUT
Masataka Yoshida DHDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1BOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Zack Kelly RPOUT
Colorado Rockies
PlayerStatus
Jaden Hill RPOUT
Jose Quintana SPOUT
Jeff Criswell RPOUT
Chase Dollander SPOUT
Welinton Herrera RPOUT
McCade Brown SPOUT
RJ Petit RPOUT
Pierson Ohl RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Colorado Rockies @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Brenton Doyle. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies stats and odds.

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies : Colorado Rockies Win (+198)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the Colorado Rockies is supported by their strong performance on the road. Despite the Boston Red Sox's impressive home record, the Rockies have been able to maintain a lower overall runs allowed average (3.2) compared to the Red Sox's 2.8. This suggests that the Rockies' defense has been performing well. Moreover, the Rockies have been limiting their opponents to an average of 4.8 runs in their last five away games, which is lower than the Red Sox's home runs scored average of 5.2. This indicates that the Rockies have a good chance of suppressing the Red Sox's offense. Furthermore, the Rockies' overall runs scored average of 4.3 is not far from the Red Sox's 5.2, implying that they can keep up with the Red Sox's offensive production. Therefore, the bet on the Rockies is statistically justified.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rockies vs Sox, or as Sox vs Rockies. The most recent game between them was Monday 7 July 2025 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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