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The latest Bet Better model pick for Wilyer Abreu is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +12.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Wilyer Abreu

BOS

+12.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -172 (1.58)
+12.8% Edge
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul, 11:15PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.1%
Implied Probability
63.3%
Model Edge
+12.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases76.1%—63.3%1.31+12.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Wilyer Abreu (BOS) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-172)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mets gear up to face the Red Sox on July 10, all eyes will be on Wilyer Abreu's performance. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends indicate he might struggle to find his groove against the Mets’ pitching. The New York bullpen has been particularly stingy, allowing just a .230 batting average to opposing hitters over the last month. Moreover, Abreu’s recent form has been a bit shaky, with only a handful of hits in his last few games against left-handers. Given that the Mets are likely to throw a quality lefty, this matchup could further stifle his chances. Add to that the pressure of a high-stakes game, and it’s easy to see why the under on his total bases at 1.5 is enticing. With the odds leaning toward a low output, betting under feels like a savvy play in this clash of titans.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.7 · hi 1 · lo 0
101

Wilyer Abreu MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Wilyer Abreu MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Wilyer Abreu MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak7L2060%
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.530%
O 4.520%

Wilyer Abreu MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Wilyer Abreu MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
O 0.560%
O 1.530%

Wilyer Abreu MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -172 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -417 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 2.5 Under -323 ✗ MISS
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
05 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Batter - Walks — — — Pending
24 Jun 26 Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Wilyer Abreu (BOS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Wilyer Abreu is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.8% on this pick. Their next game is Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets on Friday 10 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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