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Model picks & player props
Arizona Diamondbacks
VS
Boston Red Sox

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 8:39AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Wed 19 Aug 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
57.8%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9.5 Total Runs +162

The model graded 70 markets for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $262 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 57.8% across 45 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 19 Aug 2026, 8:10PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win35.0%
The price says35.9%
Best price+162
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Long-shot35% chance +162
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot34% chance
Total Runs Long-shot39% chance
Spread Long-shot23% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean56% chance
Total Runs Lean46% chance
Total Runs Long-shot18% chance
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Long-shot34% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 11 props Highup to 84%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 80%
Batter - Walks × 12 props Highup to 100%
Batter - Total Bases × 10 props Highup to 82%
Batter - Singles × 7 props Highup to 81%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox last met on Wed 19 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Over 9.5 · $100 returned $254

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 74 of 108 right (mlb batter hits overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 6
Cal Raleigh Over 1.5
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $650
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
8.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,565+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Brandon Pfaadt SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Ceddanne Rafaela CFDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Tyron Guerrero RPOut
  • Eduardo Rivera SPOut
  • Willson Contreras 1BOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sonny Gray SP
Availability updated Sep 5, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Wilyer Abreu Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Brandon Pfaadt ARI Pitcher - Earned Runs
Nick Sogard Batter - Walks
Wilyer Abreu Batter - Total Bases
Andruw Monasterio MIL Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1Free board10-8

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs Arizona DiamondbacksNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Arizona Diamondbacks L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Arizona Diamondbacks have won 2 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–0BALAway
W1–0BALAway
W6–5BALAway
L3–8SEAHome
L6–9SEAHome
Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–3HOUAway
W4–3HOUAway
L1–7PHIHome
W1–0PHIHome
L1–2PHIHome

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 0.8 runs per game (1-4) while Arizona Diamondbacks are at 1.0 (2-3); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Arizona Diamondbacks.

0.8
Boston Red Sox runs/G
1.0
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxArizona Diamondbacks
Runs / game0.81.0
Hits / game1.02.2
Home runs / game0.20.6
Walks drawn / game0.40.4
Batter K / game1.61.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.81.4
Pitching K / game1.21.2
Walks allowed / game0.80.2
L5 record1-42-3

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 2, Arizona Diamondbacks won 1.

DateBoston Red SoxArizona DiamondbacksWinner
Aug 1967Arizona Diamondbacks
Aug 1894Boston Red Sox
Aug 17111Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Ceddanne Rafaela CFDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Tyron Guerrero RPOUT
Eduardo Rivera SPOUT
Willson Contreras 1BOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Michael Soroka SPOUT
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Our Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox prediction for August 20, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 20, 2026 our model has run Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) Under 0.5 RBIs (-357), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
45
Total Picks
57.8%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox -0.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -1.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -1 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox -2.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 9.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Boston Red Sox 0.5 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
19 Aug 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -3 ✗ MISS
19 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Diamondbacks vs Sox, or as Sox vs Diamondbacks. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 19 August 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 57.8% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 12 meetings on record
Arizona Diamondbacks 7–5 across the last 12 meetings · these games average 9.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Aug 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox6–7Arizona Diamondbacks
18 Aug 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox9–4Boston Red Sox
17 Aug 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox11–1Boston Red Sox
7 Sep 2025Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–7Boston Red Sox
6 Sep 2025Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks5–1Arizona Diamondbacks
5 Sep 2025Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks10–5Arizona Diamondbacks
25 Aug 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox5–7Arizona Diamondbacks
24 Aug 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox1–4Arizona Diamondbacks
23 Aug 2024Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox2–12Arizona Diamondbacks
28 May 2023Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–2Arizona Diamondbacks

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 12 meetings on file.

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