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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brandon Pfaadt is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +29.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Brandon Pfaadt

ARI

+29.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 -114 (1.88)
+29.4% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Tue 7 Jul, 1:40AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.6%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+29.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts82.6%—53.2%1.21+29.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Padres gear up to face the Diamondbacks, all eyes will be on Brandon Pfaadt while considering his strikeout potential. Historically, Pfaadt has struggled to find his rhythm against teams with potent lineups, and the Padres, boasting a lineup averaging over 4.8 runs per game, can make life challenging for any pitcher. Recent trends show that Pfaadt has tallied fewer than four strikeouts in several of his last outings, and given the Padres' ability to make contact, that pattern is likely to continue. Additionally, San Diego has been patient at the plate, ranking high in walks, which further limits strikeout opportunities. With the model predicting just over two strikeouts for Pfaadt, betting the under on 3.5 seems like a savvy play. Expect the Padres to put the ball in play and Pfaadt to find himself in tough situations—all leading to a quieter night on the strikeout front.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak8L2095%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.550%
O 6.520%

Brandon Pfaadt MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak7L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.550%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%

Brandon Pfaadt MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2065%
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.510%

Brandon Pfaadt MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.8avg earned runs · L5

Brandon Pfaadt MLB earned runs: averaging 1.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
17.8avg outs · L5
Streak5L2060%
O 16.560%
O 17.550%

Brandon Pfaadt MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.8 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Jul 26 Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brandon Pfaadt is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.4% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres on Tuesday 7 July at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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