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The latest Bet Better model pick for Derek Hill is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
MLB

Derek Hill

MIA

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -667 (1.15)
+6.1% Edge
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
loanDepot Park, Miami, Florida · Indoor
Wed 27 Aug, 5:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+6.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases93.1%—87.0%1.07+6.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Derek Hill (MIA) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet on Derek Hill's stolen bases is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. His overall average for stolen bases in the last five games is only 0.2, indicating that he rarely steals bases. This trend is consistent when playing at home, against the opposition team, and in his overall games. Furthermore, he has not been caught stealing in the last five games, which suggests that he is not making many attempts. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, are also relatively low. These statistics suggest that Hill's role is not centered around stealing bases, making the under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1.5avg hits · L5
L2050%
O 0.560%

Derek Hill MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.5 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
3.5avg total bases · L5
O 1.540%

Derek Hill MLB total bases: averaging 3.5 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.5avg home runs · L5

Derek Hill MLB home runs: averaging 0.5 home runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
4.5avg H+R+RBI · L5
L2055%
O 0.560%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Derek Hill MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 4.5 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.5avg RBIs · L5
O 0.510%

Derek Hill MLB rbis: averaging 1.5 RBIs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.520%

Derek Hill MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.5avg singles · L5
O 0.520%

Derek Hill MLB singles: averaging 0.5 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.5avg doubles · L5

Derek Hill MLB doubles: averaging 0.5 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5
O 0.520%

Derek Hill MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Derek Hill (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Derek Hill is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins on Wednesday 27 August at loanDepot Park, Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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