On Friday 31 July 2026, Hawthorn Hawks play North Melbourne Kangaroos in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -244 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cooper Trembath is poised to light up the scoreboard when North Melbourne clashes with Hawthorn. In his last five away games, Trembath has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging a stellar 1.2 goals per game. His recent form shows a sharpshooter with a 50% goal accuracy and a hunger for shots at goal, averaging 1.6 per match. Trembath's involvement in setting up plays is evident, with an average of 4.4 score involvements in his last five away games. With a current hit streak of one and a solid away games hit rate of 3 out of 4, Trembath is in the zone to snag a goal in this matchup. The data strongly supports backing Trembath to surpass 0.5 goals in this contest.

Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to snagging goals, Paul Curtis is on fire, especially in his recent away games. Averaging 2 goals per game in his last 5 away matches, his goal accuracy sits impressively at 76.7%. With an average of 2.8 shots at goal and 6.4 score involvements per game, Curtis is consistently in the thick of the action. Facing Hawthorn, where he's averaged 1 goal in their last 5 encounters, the stage is set for Curtis to keep his scoring streak alive. His current away hit streak of 6 games and an overall hit rate of 3 games make him a reliable bet to split the middle at least once in this matchup. Backing Curtis to go over 0.5 goals seems like a solid play with the form he's in.

Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want a reliable performer who can consistently impact the game. Cam Mackenzie from the Hawthorn Hawks fits that bill perfectly. With an average of 21 disposals over his last five home games, Cam has been a midfield maestro, showcasing his ability to find the footy in traffic and distribute it effectively. His recent form against North Melbourne has been solid too, averaging 20 disposals in their matchups. Not to mention, Cam's current hit streak of three games overall and impressive 67.3% disposal efficiency at home make him a prime candidate to surpass the 19.5 disposals line set by the bookies. Expect Cam to be in the thick of the action at UTAS Stadium, driving the Hawks forward and racking up the possessions.

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Under 89.5 totals_h2 (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Hawthorn Hawks hosting the North Melbourne Kangaroos at UTAS Stadium, the numbers paint a clear picture. Recently, the Hawks have been lighting up the scoreboard, averaging a solid 105.2 points in their last five games. However, their opponents have managed to put up a respectable 65.8 points on average, indicating a strong defensive presence. On the flip side, the Kangaroos have struggled to find consistent scoring form, only averaging 68.2 points overall and conceding around 80.2 points in their last five matches. With the Hawks' offensive prowess and the Kangaroos' defensive vulnerabilities, the under 89.5 total points bet seems like a smart play. Expect a hard-fought contest where both teams will battle it out, but the likelihood of a high-scoring shootout appears slim based on recent trends.

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Under 88.5 totals_h1 (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When the Hawthorn Hawks host the North Melbourne Kangaroos at UTAS Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive battle. In their last five home games, the Hawks have only allowed an average of 76.6 points against and have kept teams to an average of 10.2 behinds. Meanwhile, the Kangaroos have struggled on the road, scoring just 70 points on average in their last five away games. With the Hawks boasting a solid defensive record and the Kangaroos finding it tough to score away from home, the Under 88.5 in the first half looks like a smart play. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair early on as both teams lock horns in a fierce defensive tussle.

Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Under 45.5 totals_q3 (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

So, we've got the Hawthorn Hawks squaring off against the North Melbourne Kangaroos in a clash that promises some strategic footy action. Looking at recent form, the Hawks have been locking down defensively, allowing an average of just 76.6 points against in their last 5 home games. Meanwhile, the Kangaroos have struggled to find their scoring touch on the road, managing a modest 70 points for in their recent away matches. Considering Hawthorn's solid defensive record at UTAS Stadium and North Melbourne's scoring woes away from home, it's no surprise that the model predicts a low-scoring affair with an implied probability of 54.1% for the Under 45.5 in the Totals Q3 market. With both teams showing a tendency towards tighter contests, backing the Under looks like a smart play for this matchup.

That is how our model reads Hawthorn Hawks v North Melbourne Kangaroos. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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