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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Daniel is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 95 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 95%, implied 88%, edge +6.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 12:34PM UTC
AFL

Caleb Daniel

North Melbourne

+6.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+6.0% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
95 in 100
Predicted
27.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 94.5% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +6.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals94.5%88.5%1.06+6.0%

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AI Analysis

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Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 19.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Caleb Daniel stands tall. Heading into Marvel Stadium for a showdown against the Western Bulldogs, the pocket rocket's recent form speaks volumes. Over his last five away matches, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 24 disposals per game. With sharp disposalefficiency at 81.4% and a knack for gaining valuable metres, Daniel isn't just a quantity player; he's a quality one too. Against North Melbourne, a team he's been consistently productive against, averaging 24 disposals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for him to shine. Daniel's current form streak coupled with his overall hit rate make the Over 19.5 disposals line a tantalizing prospect for punters. Expect him to rack up possessions like a seasoned pro and lead the charge for the Kangaroos.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Caleb Daniel averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.8
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Caleb Daniel has cleared 19.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o19.570%
o20.570%
o22.570%
o24.550%
o26.550%
o27.530%
o29.530%
o31.530%
o33.520%
o34.520%
o36.520%
o38.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Caleb Daniel is averaging 27.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

27.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (6 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Caleb Daniel recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
6 Sep 24Hawthorn23064
25 Aug 24GWS GIANTS23143
18 Aug 24North Melbourne25061
11 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15021
2 Aug 24Melbourne6001
28 Jul 24Sydney Swans6020
15 Jun 24Fremantle6020
7 Jun 24Brisbane Lions15022
31 May 24Collingwood14022
23 May 24Sydney Swans20042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 19.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 20.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 21.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Daniel is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.0% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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