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The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Daniel is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +10.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 11:04AM UTC
AFL

Caleb Daniel

North Melbourne

+10.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -278 (1.36)
+10.5% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
84.0%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+10.5%
Predicted Value
27.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals84.0%73.5%1.19+10.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfielders, Caleb Daniel stands tall. Heading into Marvel Stadium, Daniel's recent form is nothing short of impressive. Averaging 24 disposals in his last five away clashes, his ability to find space and distribute the ball efficiently is key. What's more, he's been a turnover magnet for opponents, which only boosts his chances to rack up possessions. Facing the Western Bulldogs, a team he's already been a handful against, with a solid 24 disposals per game in their previous encounters, the stage is set for Daniel to shine. With his current hit streaks showing consistency, backing him to surpass 22.5 disposals seems a smart move. Expect Daniel to hit the ground running, link up play, and be at the heart of North Melbourne's midfield battles.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Western BulldogsO 24.5 -143
50%hit L10 O 24.5
22.2avg disposals L5
Away24vs Western Bulldogs24.5Season best25
O 22.570%
O 23.570%
O 24.550%
O 25.550%
O 26.550%
O 27.520%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)1 / 10 hit
20141566615252323

Caleb Daniel has gone over 24.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.2 disposals, best 25). Current line: Over 24.5 at -143.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 23.5 Over -147 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 22.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 21.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Daniel is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.5% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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