On Thursday 13 August 2026, Essendon Bombers play Sydney Swans in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over, priced at -270 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-270)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to aerial prowess, Jade Gresham is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between Essendon and Sydney. Over his last five home games, he's been a marking machine, averaging 1.8 marks per game and 0.4 marks inside 50. What's even more promising is his recent history against Sydney - in their last five encounters, he's been hauling in an impressive 3 marks per game. Overall, Gresham has been consistent, averaging 2.2 marks across all recent games. With such a strong track record, especially against the Swans, Gresham looks poised to soar above the 1.5 marks line set for him in this game. So, if you're looking for a reliable bet to snag some value, backing Gresham to go over 1.5 marks is a smart play for this Sunday showdown at the MCG.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When Essendon clashes with Sydney at the iconic MCG, the stage is set for a high-scoring opening quarter. The Bombers, fueled by their recent form, are averaging a solid 9.2 goals per game at home. With an impressive 46.2 inside 50s and 19.4 shots on goal in their last five home games, Essendon's attacking prowess is undeniable. On the flip side, the Swans have been leaking points on the road, conceding an average of 97.6 points in their last five away matches and 86.2 overall. This sets the scene for Essendon to come out firing, capitalizing on their home ground advantage and exploiting Sydney's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect the Bombers to hit the scoreboard early, easily surpassing the 14.5 points mark in the first quarter. This bet is all about backing Essendon's offensive potency against Sydney's shaky defense.
Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 0.5 Goals (+140)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jade Gresham is poised to light up the MCG when Essendon takes on Sydney. Despite some recent behinds, his lethal accuracy inside 50 and knack for creating scoring chances make him a prime candidate to snag a goal. In his last five home games, he's been a consistent threat, averaging 1.4 shots at goal and 0.4 goals per game. Gresham's ability to impact the scoreboard, with an average of 2.8 score involvements, showcases his importance in Essendon's attacking setup. Facing the Swans, who have conceded an average of 0.6 goals to similar players, Gresham's track record and form signal a promising opportunity to back him to hit the scoreboard. With the odds in our favor, betting on Gresham to bag one could be a winning move come game day.
That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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