On Wednesday 12 August 2026, Essendon Bombers play Sydney Swans in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over, priced at -270 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jade Gresham (Essendon) Over 1.5 player_marks_over (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to snagging crucial marks, Jade Gresham has been soaring lately, showing a real hunger for the contest. Looking at his last five home games, he's been averaging 1.8 marks per game, with 0.4 of those coming inside 50. Facing off against the Sydney Swans at the iconic MCG, Gresham has historically performed even better, averaging 3 marks per game against them. Overall, he's been solid, maintaining a 2.2 marks per game average across all recent matches. With Gresham's ability to read the play, take contested grabs, and lead into space, it's no surprise the model predicts him to hit 2.8 marks this game. The numbers don't lie – it's looking like Gresham is primed to surpass the 1.5 marks mark comfortably in this matchup.

That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Sydney Swans. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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