On Saturday 1 August 2026, Essendon Bombers play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals, priced at -238 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 12.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Angus Clarke to go over 12.5 disposals in the upcoming Essendon Bombers clash against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers are speaking volumes. Clarke, in his last five home games, has been a consistent force, averaging 16.8 disposals with an impressive 75.8% disposal efficiency. His ability to read the play is evident, averaging 2.6 intercepts per game, showcasing his defensive impact. With an average of 11.2 kicks and 5.6 handballs at Marvel Stadium, Clarke has proven he can find the ball effectively. His recent form is solid, hitting 17 disposals on average in his last five games overall. With a model prediction of 16.6 disposals and a strong hit rate, Clarke looks primed to surpass the 12.5 mark comfortably this weekend.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Angus Clarke to surpass 11.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Essendon and Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, the numbers paint a clear picture of value and potential. Clarke's recent form at home has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 16.8 disposals over his last five games, well above the line set by the bookies. His ability to find the footy both in contested situations and uncontested possessions showcases his versatility and importance to Essendon's midfield setup. With a knack for gaining meters and maintaining solid disposal efficiency, Clarke is primed to continue his strong run against the Crows. Add in his current hit streak and a solid overall hit rate, and the rationale for taking the Over on Clarke's disposals becomes even more compelling. In a game where every possession counts, backing Clarke to shine and exceed expectations is a smart play for punters looking to capitalize on his consistency and impact on the field.

Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 10.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Essendon Bombers and the Adelaide Crows, Angus Clarke emerges as a top contender to surpass the 10.5 disposals line. Clarke has been a midfield maestro in recent home games, averaging a solid 16.8 disposals with a knack for finding his teammates effectively with a 75.8% disposal efficiency. His ball-winning ability is evident, with an average of 11.2 kicks and 5.6 handballs per game. Additionally, his recent form showcases consistency, boasting an impressive 17 disposals on average over his last five games. Clarke's ability to cover the ground is highlighted by his average of 335.2 meters gained per home game. With Clarke's current form and the home ground advantage, backing him to go over 10.5 disposals seems like a solid bet for this matchup.

Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows: Under 174.5 Total Points (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When Essendon Bombers clash with Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, it's shaping up to be a defensive battle. Essendon, averaging just 62.8 points in their last five home games and 54 overall, faces Adelaide's solid defense, allowing only 74 points on the road and 77.4 overall. With Essendon struggling to convert shots into goals and Adelaide's stingy defense, the total points are likely to stay under 174.5. Add in Adelaide's ability to restrict opposition inside 50s and Essendon's challenge in hitting the scoreboard consistently, and the under looks like a smart play. Expect a gritty contest where both teams grind it out, making every score hard-earned and the under a favorable bet.

Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows: Under 87.5 totals_h2 (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Essendon Bombers and Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, the data paints a vivid picture. Essendon has struggled to hit the scoreboard, averaging just 62.8 points in their last five home games and a measly 54 points overall. Their opponents, Adelaide, have been more prolific, averaging 86.2 points away and 90.2 overall. However, Adelaide's stingy defense, conceding only 74 points away and 77.4 overall, could stifle Essendon's attacking efforts. With Essendon likely to struggle to breach Adelaide's backline and the Crows' ability to control the tempo, the under 87.5 total points looks like a prudent play in this matchup. The stage is set for a defensive battle at Marvel Stadium.

Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows: Under 44.5 totals_q3 (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's break down this juicy AFL matchup between the Essendon Bombers and the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. When it comes to the Total Points in the third quarter, all signs point to an 'Under 44.5' bet. The Bombers have been struggling to find their scoring rhythm lately, averaging just 62.8 points in their last five home games and a meager 54 points overall. Their target goals have been hovering around 7.8, indicating a lack of offensive firepower. On the flip side, the Crows have been solid defensively on the road, conceding only 74 points on average in their away fixtures and maintaining an overall points against average of 77.4. With Essendon's offensive woes and Adelaide's stingy defense, it's looking like a low-scoring affair in the third quarter. So, expect both teams to battle it out, grinding for every goal and making that 'Under 44.5' bet a tempting proposition.

That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Adelaide Crows. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks