On Friday 21 August 2026, Collingwood Magpies play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_clearances_over, priced at -400 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Sam Draper (Brisbane Lions) Over 2.5 player_clearances_over (-400)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk about why Sam Draper is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Brisbane Lions and the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG. When it comes to making his mark in the midfield battleground, Draper is no stranger to the action. With a model-predicted average of 4.3 clearances per game and a rock-solid hit rate, he's setting the bar high. Facing off against Collingwood on their home turf, Draper will be hungry to assert his dominance and lead the Lions to victory. The stats don't lie – the data suggests an 80.0% likelihood of Draper surpassing the 2.5 clearance line, making this a tantalizing prospect for punters looking to back his prowess in the engine room. So, if you're keen on riding the wave of Draper's midfield magic, backing him to hit Over 2.5 clearances could be a savvy play for this showdown.

Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Over 9.5 player_kicks_over (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player primed to make an impact with his kicks, Jordan De Goey stands tall. The Collingwood Magpies dynamo, set to dazzle in front of the home faithful at the MCG against the Brisbane Lions, is forecasted to notch an average of 13.3 kicks per game. With a model edge of 5.9% backing him, De Goey's knack for finding his teammates or taking matters into his own hands is evident. The numbers tell a story of a player in sync with the rhythm of the game, making the Over 9.5 kicks line seem like a stroll through the park for him. So, if you're looking to ride the wave of statistical certainty and back a player who knows how to split the middle, De Goey is the man to put your money on.

Jordan De Goey (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jordan De Goey and his knack for racking up possessions. When the Magpies take on the Lions at the iconic MCG, all eyes will be on De Goey to dominate the midfield. Over his last 5 home games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 25.2 touches per match. Against the Lions specifically, he's notched up an impressive 16.2 disposals on average in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 5 games and a stellar home hit rate of 6 out of 7, De Goey is in prime form to surpass the 17.5 line set by sportsbet. His consistent contested possessions, efficient ball use, and ability to cover ground make him a reliable bet to snag those crucial disposals. Trust in De Goey to split the middle and deliver on the Over in this matchup.

That is how our model reads Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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