On Thursday 20 August 2026, Collingwood Magpies play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 19.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -102 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 19.5 team_totals_q1 (-102)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into the numbers for this Friday night showdown between the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions at the iconic MCG. Recent form paints a clear picture: Collingwood has been solid at home, averaging 85.2 points per game in their last five matches at the MCG, with an impressive 53.8 inside 50s on average. However, the Brisbane Lions' defense has been stingy on the road, conceding just 77.4 points overall and a mere 93.6 in their last five away games. With the Magpies averaging 26.6 shots at goal and 12.6 target goals per game at home recently, and the Lions holding firm defensively, the under 19.5 team total for Collingwood in the first quarter looks enticing. Expect a tight, low-scoring opening stanza as these two teams battle it out under the Melbourne lights.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 39.5 team_totals_h1 (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into the upcoming clash between the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions at the iconic MCG. When looking at the recent form of the Magpies, it's evident they've been solid at home, averaging 85.2 points in their last five games at the MCG. However, despite their attacking prowess, the Lions have been stingy on the road, allowing just 77.4 points on average overall. Collingwood's offensive numbers look impressive, with an average of 26.6 shots on goal and 12.6 target goals in their last five home games. Conversely, Brisbane's defense has been tight, conceding only 93.6 points on average in their recent away matches. Considering these trends, the Under 39.5 on the Collingwood Magpies' team total in the first half seems like a prudent play. The Lions' solid defensive record on the road could make it challenging for the Magpies to hit their usual scoring heights early on.

That is how our model reads Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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