On Friday 21 August 2026, Collingwood Magpies play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 19.5 team_totals_q1, priced at +100 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 19.5 team_totals_q1 (+100)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy punters, let's break down why going 'Under 19.5' for Collingwood Magpies' Q1 team total against Brisbane Lions is a savvy move this Friday at the MCG. Collingwood's recent form at home showcases their offensive struggles in the opening quarter. Over their last five home games, the Magpies have averaged 12.6 target goals and 26.6 shots at goal, resulting in an average of 85.2 points. Meanwhile, Brisbane's defense on the road has been solid, conceding just 77.4 points on average overall and 93.6 points in their last five away games. With Collingwood facing a stingy Lions defense and struggling to convert opportunities early, the Under looks appealing. Expect a tight, low-scoring first quarter as the Magpies battle to break through Brisbane's defensive wall. The data suggests an early arm-wrestle, making the Under 19.5 a smart play for this matchup.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions: Under 39.5 team_totals_h1 (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Collingwood Magpies are gearing up to take on the Brisbane Lions at the iconic MCG, and the stats are painting a clear picture for our bet on the Under 39.5 in the Team Totals H1 market. Over their last five home games, the Magpies have been solid at locking down defensively, allowing an average of just 85.2 points against. Their offensive output has also been steady, averaging 12.6 target goals per game during this stretch. On the flip side, the Lions have been stingy on the road, conceding an average of 93.6 points in their last five away games and 77.4 overall. With the Magpies averaging 26.6 shots at goal and 51 inside 50s in their recent home matches, facing a tough Lions defense, the Under 39.5 looks like a smart play here.

That is how our model reads Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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