Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Picks, August 1, 2026

As the Reds face off against the Pirates, all eyes are on rookie Sal Stewart, but the numbers might not favor an explosive performance today. Stewart has been decent, but recent trends show the Pirates’ pitching staff has found their groove, limiting opponents to an average of just 3.8 runs per game over the last two weeks. Against lefties, Stewart has struggled, posting a mere.220 batting average, and with Pittsburgh's starter, a crafty lefty, on the mound, this could be a tough day at the office for him. The Reds have also been inconsistent as a lineup, failing to provide consistent run support. Given these factors, the under on Stewart’s total bases at 1.5 feels like a prudent approach. It’s a game where the pressure may just get to the young bat, keeping him under that threshold as the Pirates aim to stifle the Reds’ offense.

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-172)

As the Reds face off against the Pirates, all eyes will be on Elly De La Cruz, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases might be a stretch today. Although De La Cruz has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s facing a Pirates pitching staff that’s been surprisingly effective, particularly against left-handed hitters. With the way the Pirates' bullpen has tightened up lately, managing a stellar 2.75 ERA over the past two weeks, it’s hard to envision De La Cruz racking up multiple hits. Plus, he’s been inconsistent at the plate, posting a sub-.250 average recently. Combine that with the Reds’ lineup struggling against quality pitching, and the odds start to tilt in favor of an “under” bet. This matchup could very well turn into a duel, limiting De La Cruz's chances to capitalize and keeping his total bases in check.

Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-169)

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates, all eyes will be on Nick Gonzales, but bettors might want to consider a cautious approach with his total bases line set at 1.5. Gonzales has shown flashes of promise, but he’s facing a Reds pitching staff that has been surprisingly effective lately, particularly at home. Cincinnati’s rotation has limited opponents to a mere.220 batting average over the last month, showcasing their ability to stifle hitters. Moreover, Gonzales himself has struggled against right-handed pitching, with a paltry.230 average in those matchups. The Reds' arms could exploit this weakness, especially considering they’ve been adept at inducing ground balls, which limits extra-base hits. With Gonzales averaging just over a single total base per game lately, taking the under feels like a smart play in this matchup. As the Pirates look to find their footing, Gonzales may fall short of expectations tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates -2.5 (+215)

As the Pittsburgh Pirates face off against the Cincinnati Reds, there’s a compelling case for backing Pittsburgh on the alternate run line at -2.5. The Pirates have been on a roll lately, showcasing a potent offense that’s been scoring in bunches. Their recent uptick in run production, combined with a solid pitching staff, positions them well against the Reds, who have struggled to contain opposing bats. Look no further than the Pirates' ability to capitalize on mistakes, evident in their impressive run differential over the past few weeks. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has been plagued by inconsistency, particularly in the late innings, which could spell trouble against a Pirates squad eager to pounce. With the odds suggesting a favorable outcome for Pittsburgh, this game could very well see them pull away early, making the -2.5 line not just a bet, but a strategic play in a game ripe for an upset.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+136)

As the Pirates roll into Cincinnati, they’re riding a wave of momentum that speaks volumes about their potential to cover the run line. Pittsburgh has shown a striking ability to capitalize on opposing pitchers, especially against teams with shaky bullpens like the Reds. Over the past few weeks, they’ve averaged over 5 runs per game, and that offensive firepower is a key factor. On the mound, the Pirates' starter has been consistent, boasting a solid ERA that’s well below league average, which should stifle a Reds lineup that has struggled to find its groove against quality pitching. Plus, let’s not forget Pittsburgh's recent success in head-to-head matchups, giving them a psychological edge. With their bats heating up and a reliable arm taking the hill, betting on the Pirates to cover -1.5 is a compelling play as they look to assert dominance in this crucial division clash.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+134)

As we dive into this matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, the momentum clearly favors the Pirates. They’ve been riding a wave of strong offensive performances, especially against left-handed pitching, which has been the Achilles' heel for Cincinnati's starters. With the Reds’ bullpen struggling to maintain leads, the Pirates can exploit this vulnerability, particularly with their recent knack for late-game scoring. Moreover, Pittsburgh's pitching staff has turned a corner, showing improved strikeout rates while limiting walks. This combination of solid pitching and an offense that’s found its groove gives the Pirates a strong chance of not only winning but covering the -1.5 run line. With their recent trend of winning by multiple runs and Cincinnati’s inconsistencies, backing Pittsburgh for the alternate run line seems like a savvy play. Expect the Pirates to capitalize on this opportunity and potentially take control of the game early.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.