On Friday 31 July 2026, Carlton Blues play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Harry McKay and his goal-scoring prowess. McKay, the towering forward for the Carlton Blues, has been a beacon of consistency at home lately, averaging a solid 1 goal per game over his last five home clashes. His recent form against the Brisbane Lions has been particularly impressive, with an average of 3.5 goals per game in their last five encounters. McKay's ability to impact the scoreboard is undeniable, boasting an average of 2.8 shots at goal and 4.8 score involvements in his recent home games. With an impressive 25.0% goal accuracy and facing a familiar opponent where he historically performs well, McKay is primed to snag at least one goal this weekend. Considering McKay's strong track record at home and against Brisbane, backing him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart footy flutter for this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Charlie Cameron (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to goal-scoring prowess, Charlie Cameron from the Brisbane Lions is an absolute standout. His recent form is red hot, averaging 1.8 goals per game in his last five away matches. Facing Carlton, a team he's historically performed exceptionally well against, averaging 3.3 goals per game in their last five encounters, sets the stage for Cameron to shine. What makes him a reliable bet for Over 0.5 goals is not just his scoring ability but his all-around impact. Averaging 5.2 score involvements and 2.8 shots at goal per away game, Cameron is consistently in the thick of the action. With a stellar 70.0% goal accuracy and a current 15-game goal-scoring streak, Cameron is in a prime position to snag a goal or more against Carlton this weekend at Marvel Stadium. Bet confidently on Cameron to light up the scoreboard once again.

Oscar Allen (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Oscar Allen's recent form, it's clear he's in red-hot goal-scoring shape. With an average of 1.4 goals per game over his last five away matches, he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks. Not only has he been finding the goals at an impressive rate, but his accuracy sits at a solid 55.3%, ensuring he makes his shots count. Allen's ability to impact the scoreboard is further highlighted by his average of 4.2 score involvements per game. He's been getting involved in the attacking plays consistently, making him a key player for the Brisbane Lions. With a streak of 4 consecutive away games hitting the back of the net and an overall hit rate of 7 goals in his last 7 matches, Allen is poised to snag at least one goal against Carlton. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move given his current form and scoring prowess.

That is how our model reads Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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