Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Tuesday 04/07 (7-Leg) : Beat the Books

As the Nuggets gear up to face the Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but betting on him to snag over 16.5 rebounds might be a stretch. Sure, Jokic is a rebounding machine, but recent trends suggest he could fall short. Over his last five games, he's averaged 15.2 boards, and even at home, that number dips to 14.6. Against Portland, he's averaged just 11.8 rebounds in their last five matchups, and at home, that rises slightly to 13.2-well below our target.With an implied probability of 84.7% for the under and a solid hit rate of 3/3 in his last home games, it seems the odds are stacked in favor of Jokic not reaching that lofty number. This matchup could see him focusing more on playmaking, leaving fewer opportunities on the boards. Betting on the under feels both smart and strategic.

Donovan Clingan (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 14.5 Rebounds (-556)

As we gear up for the matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers, targeting Donovan Clingan for under 14.5 rebounds feels like a savvy move. Clingan has been solid, averaging around 10 rebounds overall in his last five games, and he's been particularly consistent away, pulling down about 10.6 boards per game. However, facing a Nuggets squad that excels at boxing out, he might not find it as easy to rack up those numbers.Moreover, despite his strong showing against the Trail Blazers in past matchups-with an average of 12.8 rebounds-his numbers dip slightly when he's away from home, where he's averaged just 13.3 against them. With an expected stat value of 10.26 and a hit rate of 100% in his last three games, we can see the odds favoring the under here. The pressure of playing on the road makes this a compelling bet, so I'd lean towards Clingan

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-303)

When the Denver Nuggets host the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but we're leaning towards the under on his assists, set at 12.5. While Jokic is a maestro on the court, managing an average of 12.8 assists over his last five games, that number dips to 10.2 when he faces Portland at home. The Trail Blazers have a knack for tightening up against playmakers, allowing only 9.6 assists per game to opposing centers in their last five matchups. With an expected stat value of just 9.44, it's clear Jokic might find it tough to distribute the ball as freely, especially in a playoff-like atmosphere where defenses get more aggressive. Combine this with an implied probability of 75.2% for the under, and it starts to paint a clearer picture: less is more for Jokic's assists this time around.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 46.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-294)

When looking at Deni Avdija's recent performance, especially on the road, the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 46.5 seems like a smart move. Sure, he's had some explosive outings, averaging 25.2 points and 8.4 rebounds in his last five away games. However, against the Nuggets, he's historically struggled, tallying just 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds on the road. In fact, Avdija's stats against Denver paint a picture of a player who often falls short, averaging just 22.2 points in total versus them. The Nuggets' defense is tough, and with Avdija's overall hit rate being a strong 18 out of 20 lately, it's likely that this matchup will push him back toward that lower range. Given his recent trend, the under feels like a promising play to capitalize on.

LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 9.5 Assists (-139)

As the Lakers prepare to face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home, targeting LeBron James for under 9.5 assists feels like a savvy play. Historically, when he matches up against the Thunder, he's averaged just 5.6 assists over the last five encounters, and that number dips slightly to 6.6 when playing at home. While LeBron's playmaking ability is elite, recent trends reveal he's been more of a scorer lately, averaging only 7.6 assists in his last five home games. Plus, he's hit the under on this line in 16 of his last 20 games, including 8 of the last 9 at home. With the Thunder's defensive focus likely tightening around him, it's reasonable to expect LeBron to be a bit more guarded in distributing the ball. So, betting the under on his assists could be a smart move as he shifts gears to take on a more aggressive scoring role.

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers) Under 37.5 Points + Assists (-250)

As the Trail Blazers head to Denver, all eyes will be on Deni Avdija, but I'm banking on him falling short of that lofty 37.5 points + assists mark. While Avdija has been solid lately, averaging 25.2 points and 7.4 assists away from home, history shows he struggles against the Nuggets, putting up just 13.4 points and 5.8 assists in past matchups at altitude. The Nuggets' defense has been particularly stingy, and the high altitude can be a factor for opposing players. With Avdija hitting the under in all 12 of his last away games and maintaining a perfect record of hitting the under in his last 20 games, it's hard to see him breaking that trend. Given these dynamics, I feel confident that the under on Avdija's combined points and assists is the smart play for this matchup.