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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Rowell is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +10.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 9:38AM UTC
AFL

Matt Rowell

Gold Coast SUNS

+10.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -333 (1.30)
+10.0% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
86.9%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+10.0%
Predicted Value
26.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals86.9%—76.9%1.15+10.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 20.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, you want someone in form, someone who thrives under the home floodlights. Enter Matt Rowell, the engine of Gold Coast Suns' midfield, set to square off against Collingwood Magpies. Rowell's recent home displays have been nothing short of impressive, averaging a hefty 25.4 disposals per game, showcasing his ball-winning prowess. With a pinpoint disposalefficiency of 72.5%, the young gun knows how to find his targets accurately. In his last five against Collingwood, he's been a consistent force, averaging 23.8 disposals per game. Rowell's ability to intercept play (3.4 per game) and generate forward momentum (340.2 metres gained) makes him a reliable bet to surpass the 20.5 disposal line. With a streak of three consecutive hits in both home and overall games, Rowell is locked in and ready to lead the charge. Expect him to boss the midfield, racking up possessions and steering your bet comfortably Over the line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 24.5
24.6avg disposals L5
Home24.4vs Western Bulldogs19.2Season best35
O 22.560%
O 23.550%
O 24.550%
O 25.550%
O 26.530%
O 27.520%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)avg 23.1 · hi 32 · lo 16
23202416202130321629

Matt Rowell has gone over 24.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.6 disposals, best 35).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 20.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 21.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Rowell is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +10.0% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 4 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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