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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Rowell is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +5.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 12:53PM UTC
AFL

Matt Rowell

Gold Coast SUNS

+5.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -714 (1.14)
+5.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.6%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+5.9%
Predicted Value
26.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.6%87.7%1.07+5.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 18.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mate, if you're looking to back a sure thing in the Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Magpies showdown, keep a keen eye on local hero Matt Rowell. This gun midfielder has been on an absolute tear lately, averaging a whopping 25.4 disposals in his last five home games. With a stellar disposal efficiency of 72.5%, Rowell knows how to find his teammates with pinpoint accuracy. Against Collingwood, he's been even more lethal, averaging 23.8 disposals in their past encounters. Rowell's recent form is red hot, boasting a current hit streak of 3 games both at home and overall. He's a ball magnet and a linchpin in the Suns' midfield, racking up possessions and making a real impact on the game. With the line set at 18.5 disposals, backing Rowell to go over is a smart play with a solid statistical foundation to boot. Expect him to dominate the contest and easily surpass that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
27.4avg disposals L5
Away26.8vs GWS GIANTS23.8Season best35
O 25.570%
O 26.540%
O 27.530%
O 28.520%
O 29.520%
O 30.510%
Game log vs line (O 27.5)avg 23.1 · hi 32 · lo 16
23202416202130321629

Matt Rowell has gone over 27.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 27.4 disposals, best 35).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 18.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 19.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 20.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Rowell is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 4 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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