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The latest Bet Better model pick for Callum Wilkie is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 1:58PM UTC
AFL

Callum Wilkie

St Kilda

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -114 (1.88)
+17.9% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
71.1%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
20.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.1%—53.2%1.41+17.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) Under 23.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Callum Wilkie, the St Kilda defender, faces a tough challenge away at GMHBA Stadium against the Geelong Cats. Wilkie's recent form, averaging 18.6 disposals in his last five away games, falls just short of the bookies' line of 23.5. Despite a solid 80.9% disposal efficiency, his average of 13.2 kicks and 5.4 handballs might not be enough to reach the line against a strong Geelong midfield. Moreover, in his last five encounters against Geelong, Wilkie has only managed an average of 13.5 disposals. With his overall disposals average at a promising 25.2, recent trends suggest he might struggle to hit the mark against this particular opponent. Considering his hit rate and the matchup dynamics, backing Wilkie to stay under 23.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this Thursday night clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
25.2avg disposals L5
Away18.6vs Geelong Cats19.6Season best28
O 23.540%
O 24.530%
O 25.520%
O 26.510%
O 27.510%
O 28.510%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)avg 19.9 · hi 28 · lo 11
18252614182115232811

Callum Wilkie has gone over 25.5 disposals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 25.2 disposals, best 28).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 23.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Callum Wilkie is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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