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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Durham is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +16.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:21PM UTC
AFL

Sam Durham

Essendon

+16.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+16.1% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
93.0%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+16.1%
Predicted Value
22.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.0%76.9%1.08+16.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mate, when it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, you want reliability and impact. Sam Durham of the Essendon Bombers fits that bill perfectly. This bloke has been a disposal machine lately, averaging a solid 17.2 disposals in his last five away games. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically snagged an average of 18.7 disposals against, Durham's set up for success. With his consistent performance, especially hitting 16 out of his last 20 games, he's in the zone to smash that 15.5 disposal line. Whether he's splitting the middle with his kicks or dishing out handballs like candy, Durham's bound to make an impact on the field and on our bet slip. Lock it in for a ripper of a game!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.7avg disposals recent
Season best29
Disposals last 10avg 22.7 · hi 29 · lo 16
29182521272125231622

Sam Durham has a disposals high of 29 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 15.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 14.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 13.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Durham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Durham is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.1% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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