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AFL

Sam Durham

Essendon

+9.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -714 (1.14)
+9.2% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Model Probability
97.0%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+9.2%
Predicted Value
22.9 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, you want a sure bet, someone who's a lock to deliver. Enter Sam Durham. The Essendon Bombers' midfielder has been a beacon of consistency, averaging a healthy 17.2 disposals in his last five away games. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically tallied an average of 18.7 disposals against, Durham is poised to shine. His recent form boasts an impressive 65.0% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining meters, averaging 303.6 in his last outings. With a line set at 13.5 disposals, Durham's track record suggests he'll smash through that threshold with ease. Backing him to surpass 13.5 disposals is as safe a bet as they come in this clash at People First Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 40.0% (2/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 16.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 17.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Sam Durham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 5 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 40.0% (2/5). The latest model pick for Sam Durham is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.