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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Durham is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 97 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 97%, implied 88%, edge +8.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 2:26AM UTC
AFL

Sam Durham

Essendon

+8.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+8.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
97 in 100
Predicted
22.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 97.0% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +8.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals97.0%—88.5%1.03+8.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Durham is primed to shine on the field against the Gold Coast Suns. Over his last five away games, Durham has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 17.2 disposals per game. Facing the Suns, he's been even more prolific, notching an impressive average of 18.7 disposals in their recent encounters. With his knack for contested possessions and efficient ball use, Durham is set to make a significant impact. His recent form boasts a disposalefficiency of 65.0% and a turnover rate of just 4.4 per game. Additionally, his ability to cover ground is evident with an average of 303.6 metres gained. Backed by these numbers and facing a favorable matchup, Durham is poised to surpass the 13.5 disposals line comfortably, making him a solid bet for the upcoming clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Durham averaged 21.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

21.4
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.0
Marks
4.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Sam Durham recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions22053
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans16044
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS23145
4 Aug 24Fremantle25065
27 Jul 24St Kilda21151
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows27135
13 Jul 24Melbourne21144
5 Jul 24Collingwood25074
29 Jun 24Geelong Cats180410
23 Jun 24West Coast Eagles29132
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Durham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Durham is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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