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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Durham is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +9.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:29PM UTC
AFL

Sam Durham

Essendon

+9.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -714 (1.14)
+9.2% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 3:15AM
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Model Probability
97.0%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+9.2%
Predicted Value
22.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals97.0%—87.7%1.03+9.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sam Durham (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop, you want a sure bet, someone who's a lock to deliver. Enter Sam Durham. The Essendon Bombers' midfielder has been a beacon of consistency, averaging a healthy 17.2 disposals in his last five away games. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically tallied an average of 18.7 disposals against, Durham is poised to shine. His recent form boasts an impressive 65.0% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining meters, averaging 303.6 in his last outings. With a line set at 13.5 disposals, Durham's track record suggests he'll smash through that threshold with ease. Backing him to surpass 13.5 disposals is as safe a bet as they come in this clash at People First Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24.8avg disposals L5
Home23.2vs GWS GIANTS17.4Season best29
O 22.560%
O 23.550%
O 24.540%
O 25.530%
O 26.520%
O 27.510%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)avg 22.7 · hi 29 · lo 16
29182521272125231622

Sam Durham has gone over 24.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.8 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 13.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 14.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 15.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Durham (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Durham is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns on Saturday 18 April at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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