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Model picks & player props
Melbourne Demons
VS
Adelaide Crows

Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 1:24AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sun 6 Jul 2025, 5:15AM
15
Game markets graded
29
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Adelaide Crows -27.5 Spread -110

The model graded 44 markets for Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 6 Jul 2025, 5:15AM at Adelaide Oval.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win70.2%
The price says52.4%
Best price-110
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Adelaide Crows -27.5 High70% chance -110
Spread High68% chance
Total Points High70% chance
Total Points High68% chance
Spread High67% chance
Total Points High67% chance
Goals × 12 props Highup to 94%
Disposals × 17 props Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Adelaide Crows
-25.5
+ 14 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Demons

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals
Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows Goals
Jordan Dawson Adelaide Crows Goals
Kysaiah Pickett Melbourne Goals
Alex Neal-Bullen Adelaide Crows Goals

+ 29 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Melbourne Demons @ Adelaide Crows — what the model found

Our model graded 44 betting markets for Melbourne Demons at Adelaide Crows — 15 on the game itself and 29 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

15
Game markets graded
29
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 44 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 43 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows — recent results

Adelaide Crows have won 3 of their last 5 games; Melbourne Demons have won 0 of their last 0.

Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W157–101GWSHome
L88–112FREAway
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome

Melbourne Demons @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

Deep dive into Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Jake Melksham. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons stats and odds.

Jake Melksham (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-370)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Melksham is a strong bet to score anytime against Adelaide Crows based on his recent performance data. With an average of 2 goals in his last 5 away games and consistent score involvements, Melksham's attacking impact is evident. His goal accuracy of 45.1% and 3.6 shots at goal per game reflect his ability to create scoring opportunities. Facing an opponent he has historically performed well against, averaging 2 goals in their last 5 matchups, Melksham's form and track record make him a reliable choice to snag a goal in this game. The model's prediction of 1.4 goals aligns with his recent performances, indicating a high probability of him hitting the back of the net.

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Demons vs Crows, or as Crows vs Demons. The most recent game between them was Sunday 6 July 2025 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 15 game picks and 29 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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