On Saturday 8 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -556 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's talk Brodie Kemp. The Carlton young gun has been on a tear lately, smashing in an average of 1.6 goals per game over his last five away matches. His accuracy has been on point, hitting the scoreboard 55% of the time with an average of 3.6 shots at goal per game. Kemp isn't just a goal kicker; he's involved in the play, averaging 5.8 score involvements and 2.2 inside 50s on the road. Facing St Kilda, a team he's yet to score against in their last encounters, Kemp is hungry to break that drought. With his current form, riding a five-game goal streak away from home, the odds are in his favor to snag at least one goal in this showdown at Marvel Stadium. So, when it comes to backing Kemp to go Over 0.5 goals, trust the numbers and back the young gun to deliver.
Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Hugo Garcia is primed to hit the ground running in this clash at Marvel Stadium. Over his last five home games, Garcia has been an absolute workhorse, averaging a whopping 25.8 disposals per game. His recent form has been nothing short of stellar, with a 77.0% disposal efficiency and an impressive 280.6 metres gained on average. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 12.3 disposals, Garcia's consistency shines through. With a current hit streak of 4 at home and an overall hit rate of 8/9 in his last matches, all signs point to Garcia surpassing the 17.5 disposal line. Expect Garcia to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving the Saints forward.
Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Liam Ryan stands out as a prime candidate in the St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues clash. Ryan has been on fire at home, averaging an impressive 2.4 goals over his last 5 home games, with a stellar goal accuracy of 60.3%. His ability to impact the scoreboard is undeniable, as shown by his average of 4.2 score involvements per game. Facing Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against, Ryan's chances look even brighter. With a current hit streak of 8 at home and 5 overall, Ryan is in the form of his life and looks poised to split the middle yet again. Betting on him to go over 0.5 goals seems like a safe bet given his recent form and historical performance against Carlton.
That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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