On Friday 31 July 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: St Kilda Saints -9.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: St Kilda Saints -9.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When you look at the recent form of the St Kilda Saints and the Carlton Blues, the scales tip in favor of the Saints covering that spread of -9.5. St Kilda has been showing some promising signs in their last five games, especially at Marvel Stadium. With an average margin of 12.4 in their overall recent matches and a solid average of 84.4 points for, the Saints seem poised to make a statement. On the other hand, Carlton has been struggling on the road, with a negative average margin of -3 and a lower average points for of 79.8. Add in St Kilda's ability to generate more Inside50s and Shotsatgoal compared to the Blues, and you have a recipe for the Saints to snag a convincing win and cover the spread.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues 9.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this juicy clash between the St Kilda Saints and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium. The Blues are coming off a solid streak, boasting an impressive average of 77 points scored in their last five games, while holding opponents to just 69.2 points. On the road, they've been no pushovers either, with a margin average of 7.8 in their favor. On the other hand, the Saints have been somewhat inconsistent, especially at home, where they've struggled to contain their rivals, conceding an average of 85.4 points. With the Blues' efficient attacking play and sturdy defense, plus the Saints' leaky home form, backing the Blues at +9.5 seems like a savvy move. Expect Carlton to keep it tight and snag a few goals to cover that spread comfortably.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues Win (+139)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Recent trends and stats paint a promising picture for the Carlton Blues in their clash against the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium. The Blues have been solid on the road, boasting an average margin of 7.8 points in their last five away games, while limiting opponents to just 69.2 points on average. Their ability to control the midfield is evident with an average of 32.4 total clearances and 121.6 contested possessions per game. On the flip side, the Saints have struggled defensively at home, conceding an average of 85.4 points in their last five games at Marvel Stadium. Their clearance and contested possession numbers are slightly lower than the Blues', potentially giving Carlton the edge in the midfield battle. With these factors in mind, backing the Carlton Blues to snag the win seems like a smart bet with their recent form and matchup advantages.
That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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