On Wednesday 5 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -556 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Brodie Kemp from the Carlton Blues is looking like a prime candidate for an 'Over 0.5 Goals' bet against St Kilda. In his last five away games, Kemp has been on a scoring spree, averaging a solid 1.6 goals per match. His accuracy in front of the big sticks has been impressive at 55.0%, meaning he's making those opportunities count. With an average of 3.6 shots on goal per game and 5.8 score involvements, Kemp is actively involved in creating scoring chances. Additionally, his recent form against St Kilda has seen him bagging at least one goal per game. Riding a current hit streak of five games away and a solid overall hit rate, Kemp is poised to continue his scoring ways in this matchup. Betting on him to split the middle looks like a savvy move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Hugo Garcia's performance at Marvel Stadium, the numbers speak volumes. Over his last 5 home games, Garcia has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 25.8 disposals. His precision is on point with a solid 77.0% disposal efficiency, allowing him to not only find his teammates but also create scoring opportunities. With a current hit streak of 4 games and an overall hit rate of 8 out of his last 9, Garcia is in the form of his life. Against Carlton, a team he has historically outperformed with an average of 12.3 disposals in their last 5 encounters, Garcia is poised to dominate the possession count once again. Expect him to snag enough touches to easily eclipse the 17.5 disposal line set by the bookies. Hugo Garcia is a safe bet to split the middle and deliver for those backing his overs in this clash.

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Liam Ryan has been on an absolute tear at home, snagging an impressive average of 2.4 goals in his last five games at Marvel Stadium. With a solid goal accuracy of 60.3% and consistently getting involved in scoring plays, Ryan is a scoring machine. He's not just a goal kicker; he's a playmaker too, averaging 4.2 score involvements per game. Facing Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against, Ryan's goal-scoring prowess is set to shine. Additionally, riding an eight-game hit streak at home and boasting a perfect record in his last five outings overall, Ryan is in red-hot form. Backing him to kick at least one goal in this matchup is a smart bet, given his recent dominance and the historical numbers in his favor. Expect Ryan to split the middle and deliver for the Saints on Sunday.

That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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