On Sunday 9 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -556 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, you want someone who's in form and hungry in front of the big sticks. Enter Brodie Kemp of the Carlton Blues. Over his last five away games, Kemp has been a consistent threat, averaging 1.6 goals per game. His goal accuracy sits at a solid 55.0%, meaning he's making his shots count when he gets in range. With an average of 3.6 shots at goal and 5.8 score involvements per game, Kemp is actively involved in creating scoring opportunities for the Blues. Facing St Kilda, a team against whom he's previously averaged a goal per game, the stage is set for Kemp to continue his scoring streak. Riding a current hit streak of five games away, the signs point towards Kemp making an impact in the goal-scoring department once again. Bet on Kemp to make his mark and back him to go Over 0.5 goals in this matchup.

Hugo Garcia (St Kilda) Over 17.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Hugo Garcia hitting the Over 17.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash between St Kilda Saints and Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, the numbers are singing a sweet tune. In his last five home games, Hugo has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 25.8 possessions per game. His contested possession prowess, coupled with a stellar disposal efficiency of 77.0%, makes him a pivotal playmaker for the Saints. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against, Hugo's recent form against them indicates he's primed to feast on the footy once more. With a current hit streak of 4 games at home and the overall stats backing his consistency, backing Hugo Garcia to surpass 17.5 disposals is as safe a bet as splitting the middle from straight in front.

Liam Ryan (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Liam Ryan's recent form, it's hard to ignore his impact in front of goal. With an average of 2.4 goals in his last five home games, Ryan has been a consistent threat inside 50. His impressive goal accuracy of 60.3% and ability to get shots on goal (3.8 shots per game) make him a real danger to any defense, especially against Carlton, a team he has historically performed well against. Add in his excellent score involvements (4.2 per game) and the fact that he's on a hot streak of 8 consecutive games with at least one goal, and it's clear that Ryan is in prime position to snag at least one goal in this upcoming clash. Betting on Ryan to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move given his recent form and the matchup dynamics.

That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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