On Thursday 6 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-175)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to footy betting, sometimes the numbers paint a clear picture. Francis Evans, the young gun from Carlton, has been on a goal-scoring tear lately. Averaging a goal a game in his last five away matches, Evans has shown a keen eye for the big sticks. With an average of 1.8 shots at goal per game, he's not shy to have a crack when the opportunity arises. Against St Kilda, who he's averaged 0.5 goals per game in their previous encounters, the stage is set for Evans to shine. His recent away form of 46.7% goal accuracy suggests he's honing his craft, and with a hunger for goals evident in his 5.6 score involvements per game, backing Evans to snag at least one major in this clash looks like a smart play.
Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 12.5 Disposals (-156)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player to shine on the field, Harry McKay stands out like a beacon in the night sky. His recent form paints a picture of consistency and hunger. In his last five away games, McKay has been a midfield dynamo, averaging 12 disposals, with a keen eye for precision at 60.3% disposal efficiency. Against St Kilda, his numbers soar even higher, hitting an average of 15 disposals. McKay's ability to cover ground is another feather in his cap, racking up an impressive average of 240.2 meters gained. With his current hit streak and a hunger to dominate, McKay is poised to snag over 12.5 disposals in this clash. Betting on McKay to deliver the goods in the disposal department is a smart move for any footy punter looking to back a player in red-hot form.
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to gritty midfield battles, Patrick Cripps is the man you want in your corner. The Carlton Blues' on-ball maestro has been a possession magnet, averaging a whopping 28.6 disposals in his last five away games. His ability to win contested possessions (13 avg) and cover ground efficiently (349 meters gained avg) sets him apart. Facing St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against (25.3 disposals avg in the last five matchups), Cripps is poised to dominate the Marvel Stadium turf. With a current eight-game away hit streak and a track record of exceeding 21.5 disposals comfortably, backing Cripps to surpass this mark is a bet brimming with value and backed by a compelling narrative of midfield dominance.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Saints clash with the Blues at Marvel Stadium, we're in for a defensive showdown. St Kilda, averaging 77.6 points over their last five games, faces off against Carlton, conceding just 69.2 points on average in their away games. Both teams have been solid in limiting opposition scoring opportunities, with St Kilda allowing only 26.2 shots at goal per game, while Carlton restricts their opponents to 27.4 shots. With the total points line set at 174.5, the under looks enticing given the recent defensive prowess of both sides. Expect a hard-fought battle where every point will be hard-earned, making the under a smart play for those looking to snag a wager on this intriguing matchup.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Under 44.5 totals_q3 (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When St Kilda Saints clash with Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, expect a defensive battle in the third quarter. St Kilda's recent form shows they've been conceding an average of 92.2 points in their last five home games, while also struggling to convert chances, averaging only 11.4 target goals during the same period. On the flip side, Carlton Blues have tightened up their defense on the road, allowing just 69.2 points per game in their last five away matches. With both teams showing a lack of scoring prowess recently, the Under 44.5 total points in the third quarter seems like a smart play. Expect a tense quarter with both sides struggling to kick through the big sticks.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Under 87.5 totals_h2 (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The clash between St Kilda Saints and Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium promises a defensive slugfest. The Saints, despite showing offensive flair, have struggled to hit their stride at home, averaging 77.6 points in their last five games. Facing a Carlton side with a solid away defense, only conceding 69.2 points on average, the Saints may find it challenging to light up the scoreboard. Meanwhile, the Blues, with an average of 77 points scored in their recent outings, are facing a St Kilda defense that has held opponents to just 76.6 points. With both teams showing resilience in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, the Under 87.5 bet in the Totals H2 market emerges as an enticing prospect for footy punters looking to capitalize on a potentially low-scoring affair.
That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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