On Saturday 8 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -179 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-179)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Francis Evans' recent form, it's clear he's been making a real impact on the scoring end. Averaging 1 goal in his last 5 away games, with a solid 46.7% goal accuracy, he's been a key player in Carlton's forward line. In his last 3 away games, he's been getting almost 2 shots on goal per game, showing he's getting plenty of opportunities to snag a goal. Facing St Kilda, against whom he's averaged half a goal in his last 5 outings, the stage is set for Evans to continue his scoring streak. With his involvement in over 5 scoring plays per game, there's a good chance he'll kick one through the big sticks in this matchup. Betting on Evans to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move given his recent performances.
Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 12.5 Disposals (-159)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the upcoming clash between the Carlton Blues and St Kilda Saints, all eyes are on Carlton's sharpshooter, Harry McKay. McKay has been a dominant force on the field lately, averaging 12 disposals over his last five away games. Facing off against St Kilda, where he has historically achieved even higher disposal numbers, McKay is poised to shine. His recent form showcases his ability to consistently find the footy, with an average of 7.8 kicks and 4.2 handballs per game away from home. With a disposal efficiency of 60.3% and an impressive average of 240.2 meters gained, McKay is not just a quantity player but a quality one too. His ability to impact the game through both contested and uncontested possessions makes him a strong bet to surpass the 12.5 disposal mark, especially given his 15-disposal average in recent matchups against St Kilda. Backing McKay to rack up the possessions and make his mark on the game seems like a smart play for this matchup.
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to a hard-fought midfield battle in the AFL, you can always count on Patrick Cripps to lead the charge for the Blues. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of stellar, averaging a whopping 28.6 disposals over his last five away games. With a keen eye for finding his teammates with 16.6 handballs per game and a strong contested possession game averaging 13 per outing, Cripps is the engine that drives Carlton's midfield. Facing off against St Kilda, a team that he's historically performed well against with an average of 25.3 disposals in their last five matchups, the stage is set for Cripps to once again dominate the possession count. Add in his impressive 57.8% disposal efficiency and ability to gain valuable meters with 349 per game, and it's clear why backing Cripps to surpass 21.5 disposals is a smart play for this showdown at Marvel Stadium.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When St Kilda Saints clash with Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, expect a gritty, defensive showdown. The Saints, averaging 77.6 points in their last five home games, face a Carlton side conceding just 69.2 points on the road. St Kilda's forward line, with 11.4 targeted goals per game, will be challenged by a resilient Blues defense. Carlton, on the other hand, averaging 77 points scored away, will need to penetrate a St Kilda defense allowing only 76.6 points overall. With both teams boasting strong defensive records, the under 174.5 total points bet looks enticing. This game is likely to be a hard-fought battle with both sides struggling to snag goals, making a lower scoring affair a sensible wager.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Under 44.5 totals_q3 (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When St Kilda Saints clash with Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for a gritty battle. Looking at the recent trends, the Saints have been solid at home, averaging 77.6 points in their last five games. However, their scoring potential might face a challenge against Carlton's defense, conceding only 69.2 points on the road. With both teams showing defensive resilience and a focus on controlling the tempo with high inside 50 counts, the third quarter could see a tight contest. St Kilda's offensive output averaging 11.4 target goals per game could be tested by Carlton's ability to limit scoring opportunities. The Blues, on the other hand, aim to maintain their consistency, averaging 77 points in their last five outings. Expect a fiercely contested quarter where both teams battle for supremacy, potentially resulting in an under on the 44.5 total points line.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: St Kilda Saints Win (+118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The St Kilda Saints are looking primed to snag a win against the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium. In their last five home games, the Saints have been averaging 77.6 points for, showcasing their offensive prowess. They've also been dominating in clearances, contested possessions, and inside 50s, painting a picture of a team that's hungry for goals. On the defensive end, holding opponents to an average of 92.2 points against at home highlights their ability to stifle scoring opportunities. In contrast, the Blues have been struggling away from home, conceding an average of 85.8 points against. With St Kilda's recent form and home ground advantage, backing them to secure the win seems like a smart play in this matchup.
That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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