On Saturday 1 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues 9.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues 9.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy punters, let's dive into why backing the Carlton Blues at +9.5 in the spread against the St Kilda Saints could be a savvy move this weekend. The Blues have been showing some serious grit on the road, with an average margin of 7.8 in their last five away games. They've been finding the big sticks consistently, putting up an average of 77 points per game, while tightening up their defense to allow just 69.2 points against. On the flip side, St Kilda has been struggling to keep their opponents at bay at home, conceding an average of 85.4 points. Their margin sits at -3.4 in the last five home games, suggesting they might struggle to cover the spread. With the Blues hungry to prove themselves and the Saints showing defensive vulnerabilities, backing Carlton +9.5 could be a shrewd play.

That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get My Full Access