Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction & Picks, October 11, 2026

DraftKings offers odds of -112 for Josh Downs to go under 56.5 receiving yards, which looks like a solid bet. The Steelers have a strong defense that often limits opposing receivers. Plus, they are playing at home, where they tend to be even tougher. Our numbers show a good chance for this bet to hit, mainly because the Colts' passing game has not been very explosive lately. The biggest risk here is that the Colts could have a surprising offensive day, and if their quarterback finds his rhythm, Downs could easily break this number.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Pat Freiermuth Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Steelers' offense can be tricky for the Colts, especially with Pat Freiermuth getting open in the middle. He has shown he can catch passes and rack up yards, making him a good target for quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Colts' defense struggles at times, and Freiermuth might find plenty of chances to make plays. Betting on him to get over 27.5 receiving yards looks promising since he has been involved in the offense lately. The risk is that the game could be very close, and both teams might focus on running the ball more than passing. Still, Freiermuth's ability to find space could help him reach that yardage mark.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: Pat Freiermuth Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (Alt) (-115)

The Colts have a solid defense, but the Steelers' offense is starting to click, especially with quarterback Kenny Pickett getting more comfortable. Pat Freiermuth has been a reliable target, and with the way he's been playing lately, he should get plenty of chances to rack up receiving yards. Betting on Freiermuth to go over 24.5 yards feels like a smart move here, especially since our numbers show a good chance he'll succeed. The biggest risk is that the Colts can sometimes tighten up on tight ends, making it tough to get big plays. Still, with the way things are shaping up, he looks ready to shine.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.