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Model picks & player props
Indianapolis Colts
VS
Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 15, 7:23PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NFL
Kansas City
Mon 21 Sep 2026, 12:20AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 19.5 Alternate Team Total Points +400

The model graded 20 markets for Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $500 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 21 Sep 2026, 12:20AM at Kansas City.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win31.6%
The price says19.0%
Best price+400
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Team Total Points Under 19.5 Long-shot32% chance +400
Alternate Team Total Points Long-shot28% chance —
Team Totals H2 High61% chance —
Team Totals H1 High62% chance —
Alternate Totals H2 Lean42% chance —
Alternate Team Total Points Long-shot24% chance —
Alternate Totals H2 Long-shot38% chance —
Alternate Totals H2 Lean54% chance —
Alternate Team Totals H1 High90% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
Predicted score: Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 20.8. Kick-off Mon 21 Sep, 12:20AM at Kansas City. Best bet: Under 19.5 at +400.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 23 bookmakers compared
Winner
Colts3.70+270Kalshi
Chiefs1.35-285Kalshi
Total points
Over47.52.08+108Kalshi
Under47.51.91-110Bovada

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs odds by bookmaker

23 books · best price in green
BookColts winChiefs winChiefs -6.5Over 47.5Under 47.5
Bally Bet3.65+2651.29-3451.87-1151.93-1081.88-114
BetAnySports3.45+2451.33-3031.87-115——
BetOnline3.49+2491.33-3031.87-115——
betPARX3.65+2651.29-3451.87-1151.93-1081.88-114
BetRivers3.65+2651.29-3451.87-1151.93-1081.88-114
BetUS3.50+2501.33-3031.91-110——
Bovada3.50+2501.33-3031.83-1201.91-1101.91-110
DraftKings3.45+2451.33-3031.83-1201.91-1101.91-110
ESPN BET3.60+2601.31-3231.87-1151.95-1051.87-115
Fanatics3.50+2501.31-3231.87-1151.95-1051.87-115
FanDuel3.60+2601.31-3231.87-1151.95-1051.87-115
Fliff3.45+2451.29-3451.83-1201.87-1151.91-110
Hard Rock Bet3.50+2501.29-3451.87-115——
Hard Rock Bet (FL)3.50+2501.29-3451.87-115——

Since the market opened: Chiefs to win opened 1.34, best now 1.36; the over 47.5 opened 1.91, best now 2.08 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
Our call on this game: 1 pick on the board · logged before tip-offSee the picks

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Team Total Points
Under
19.5
+400
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Indianapolis Colts on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Indianapolis Colts
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Kalshi
on Indianapolis Colts
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Indianapolis Colts

  • Austin Ajiake LBQuestionable
  • Alec Pierce WRQuestionable
  • Carson Towt TEOut
  • Sean McKeon TEQuestionable
  • D.J. Montgomery WROut
  • Will Mallory TEOut

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Josh Simmons OTQuestionable
  • Chamarri Conner SQuestionable
  • Cooper McDonald LBQuestionable
  • Mansoor Delane CBQuestionable
Availability updated Sep 15, 3:39PM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

2 markets live
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs to winNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadIndianapolis Colts spread+6.5 +100
60%cover %

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsColts @ ChiefsUnder 48.5 -115
61%under %

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent results

Kansas City Chiefs have won 1 of their last 5 games; Indianapolis Colts have won 0 of their last 5.

Kansas City Chiefs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W31–10DENHome
D9–9SEAHome
L15–16TBAway
L12–20LARHome
L12–14LVAway
Indianapolis Colts — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L23–41BALHome
L16–25DETHome
L6–34ATLHome
D13–13NEAway
L30–38HOUAway

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Chiefs
PlayerStatus
Josh Simmons OTQUESTIONABLE
Chamarri Conner SQUESTIONABLE
Cooper McDonald LBQUESTIONABLE
Mansoor Delane CBQUESTIONABLE
Indianapolis Colts
PlayerStatus
Austin Ajiake LBQUESTIONABLE
Alec Pierce WRQUESTIONABLE
Carson Towt TEOUT
Sean McKeon TEQUESTIONABLE
D.J. Montgomery WROUT
Will Mallory TEOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs — where the money went

Since betting opened on Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, the market has moved away from Indianapolis Colts across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Indianapolis Colts▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Indianapolis Colts 6.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Kansas City Chiefs -6.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Indianapolis Colts 6▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Kansas City Chiefs -6▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 48▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 48▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Kansas City Chiefs▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Colts vs Chiefs, or as Chiefs vs Colts. The next scheduled game is Monday 21 September 2026 at Kansas City. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 5 meetings on record
Kansas City Chiefs 3–2 across the last 5 meetings · these games average 40.0 points (meetings on record since 2016)
DateGameScoreWinner
23 Nov 2025Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs23–20Kansas City Chiefs
25 Sep 2022Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts20–17Indianapolis Colts
6 Oct 2019Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs13–19Indianapolis Colts
12 Jan 2019Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs31–13Kansas City Chiefs
30 Oct 2016Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts14–30Kansas City Chiefs
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