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Model picks & player props
Indianapolis Colts
VS
Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 70 markets for Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs and backs Under 6.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $187.

NFL
Kansas City
Mon 21 Sep 2026, 12:20AM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 6.5 Team Totals Q1 -115

The model graded 70 markets for Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 21 Sep 2026, 12:20AM at Kansas City.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win55.7%
The price says50.5%
Best price-115
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Totals Q1 Under 6.5 Lean56% chance -115
Moneyline Q1 Members only Long-shot34% chance Members
Alternate Totals H2 Members only Long-shot28% chance Members
Team Totals Q1 Members only Lean54% chance Members
Alternate Team Total Points Members only Long-shot22% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Long-shot26% chance Members
Rushing Attempts × 1 prop Highup to 65% Members
Rushing Yards × 2 props Highup to 73% Members
Last Touchdown Scorer × 15 props Long-shotup to 27% Members
Receiving Yards × 4 props Highup to 70% Members
Receiving Yards (Alt) × 3 props Highup to 89% Members
Rush + Rec Yards × 1 prop Highup to 68% Members
Receptions × 4 props Highup to 79% Members
Anytime TD × 10 props Long-shotup to 22% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →

Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs last met on Mon 21 Sep 2026: Kansas City Chiefs won 33-30. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every NFL game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Totals Q1
Under
6.5
-115
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,802+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indianapolis ColtsMoneyline Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Totals Q1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Indianapolis ColtsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Indianapolis Colts

  • Arden Key DEOut
  • Keenan Allen WROut
  • Alec Pierce WROut
  • Micheal Clemons DEOut

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Tyquan Thornton WROut
  • Rashee Rice WRQuestionable
  • Josh Simmons OTOut
Availability updated Oct 6, 2:37AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Patrick Mahomes KC Rushing Attempts
Patrick Mahomes KC Rushing Yards
Brashard Smith KC Last Touchdown Scorer
Noah Gray KC Receiving Yards
Emmett Johnson KC Receiving Yards (Alt)

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts to winNo line posted

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadIndianapolis Colts spreadNo line posted

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsColts @ ChiefsNo line posted

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts game total — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent results

Kansas City Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 games; Indianapolis Colts have won 2 of their last 5.

Kansas City Chiefs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W30–27LVAway
W24–10MIAAway
W33–30INDHome
W31–10DENHome
D9–9SEAHome
Indianapolis Colts — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W30–13WSHAway
W19–17HOUHome
L30–33KCAway
L23–41BALHome
L16–25DETHome

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Kansas City Chiefs won 1, Indianapolis Colts won 0.

DateKansas City ChiefsIndianapolis ColtsWinner
Sep 213330Kansas City Chiefs

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Kansas City Chiefs
PlayerStatus
Tyquan Thornton WROUT
Rashee Rice WRQUESTIONABLE
Josh Simmons OTOUT
Indianapolis Colts
PlayerStatus
Arden Key DEOUT
Keenan Allen WROUT
Alec Pierce WROUT
Micheal Clemons DEOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Colts vs Chiefs, or as Chiefs vs Colts. The most recent game between them was Monday 21 September 2026 at Kansas City. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs head-to-head record

Final scores · 6 meetings on record
Kansas City Chiefs 4–2 across the last 6 meetings · these games average 43.8 points (meetings on record since 2016)

Last meeting: Mon 21 Sep 2026, Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: the Chiefs won 33-30.

DateGameScoreWinner
21 Sep 2026Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs33–30Kansas City Chiefs
23 Nov 2025Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs23–20Kansas City Chiefs
25 Sep 2022Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts20–17Indianapolis Colts
6 Oct 2019Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs13–19Indianapolis Colts
12 Jan 2019Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs31–13Kansas City Chiefs
30 Oct 2016Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts14–30Kansas City Chiefs

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