North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats Same Game Multi Tips & Prediction

Larkey shapes as a genuine chance to go over 1.5 goals at Marvel Stadium, with the model projecting 1.9 — a meaningful gap above the line even if the edge sits at a modest 0.5%. The implied probability of 62.1% at $1.61 feels slightly conservative given what the numbers say about his home form against Geelong specifically: he's averaging 1.7 goals in his last five home games against the Cats and 1.8 across all recent meetings, both comfortably clearing the line on average. The underlying mechanics support the case too. At home over his last five, Larkey is generating 4 shots at goal per game with 2.6 marks inside 50 — solid volume for a key forward. His goal accuracy sits at 35.2% in those games, meaning the chances are there; he just needs to convert at a reasonable clip. Hit rate of 2/3 at home in the last three adds further texture to a position worth taking.

Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-145)

Miers shapes as a reasonable value play here, though the away context demands some caution. The model projects him at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 3.4% edge at odds of 1.69 — implying 59.2% probability where the model sits slightly above that. His overall L5 form is the foundation of the case: averaging 0.8 goals, 2.2 shots at goal, and a mark inside 50 per game across his last five, he's clearly getting into scoring positions regularly enough to clear this modest line. The concern is his away-specific numbers, which drop sharply — just 0.2 goals, 1.4 shots, and a 5% goal accuracy over his last five road trips. Against North Melbourne away, he averages 0.3, which is marginally better. At 1.69, there's a thin but genuine edge here, and a one-game hit streak away keeps the momentum ticking. Treat it as a small-stakes play rather than a confident swing.