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Model picks & player props
Kansas City Chiefs
VS
Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 22, 6:47AM UTC

Our model graded 20 markets for Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins and backs Miami Dolphins 5.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $220.

NFL
Miami
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:00PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Dolphins 5.5 Alternate Spreads H1 +120

The model graded 20 markets for Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins (NFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $220 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:00PM at Miami.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.3%
The price says42.9%
Best price+120
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alternate Spreads H1 Miami Dolphins 5.5 High60% chance +120
Alternate Spreads H1 Members only Lean52% chance Members
Alternate Team Total Points Members only High80% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H1 Members only High63% chance Members
Alternate Team Totals H2 Members only High90% chance Members
Totals Q2 Members only Lean53% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every NFL game on today's board →
Miami Dolphins are the model's favourite to beat Kansas City Chiefs, with a 51% chance to win. Predicted score: Miami Dolphins 21.3 – Kansas City Chiefs 22. Kick-off Sun 27 Sep, 5:00PM at Miami. Best bet: Miami Dolphins 5.5 at +120.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 22 bookmakers compared
Winner
Chiefs1.15-671Kalshi
Miami Dolphins7.14+614Kalshi
Total points
Over45.51.92-108Kalshi
Under45.52.04+104Kalshi

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins odds by bookmaker

22 books · best price in green
BookChiefs winMiami Dolphins winMiami Dolphins +11.5Over 45.5Under 45.5
Bally Bet1.14-7145.90+490—1.89-1121.92-109
BetAnySports1.13-7696.20+5201.91-110——
BetMGM1.13-7696.50+550———
BetOnline1.13-7696.34+5341.91-110——
betPARX1.14-7145.90+490—1.89-1121.92-109
BetRivers1.14-7145.90+490—1.89-1121.92-109
BetUS1.13-7696.30+5301.91-110——
Bovada1.11-9096.75+5751.91-1101.87-1151.95-105
DraftKings1.12-8336.75+5751.89-1121.87-1151.95-105
ESPN BET1.11-9096.50+5501.95-105——
Fanatics1.14-7146.00+5001.91-110——
FanDuel1.13-7696.40+540—1.87-1151.95-105
Fliff1.11-9096.25+5251.87-1151.87-1151.95-105
Hard Rock Bet1.12-8336.00+5001.91-110——

Since the market opened: Miami Dolphins to win opened 5.16, best now 7.14; the over 45.5 opened 1.90, best now 1.92 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best NFL market — 349 of 542 right (nfl alternate team total points overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 22
Over 14.5
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Rams
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $132
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alternate Spreads H1
Miami Dolphins
5.5
+120
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,699+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami DolphinsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami DolphinsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami DolphinsAlternate Spreads H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotals Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverAlternate Team Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlternate Team Totals H1The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Miami Dolphins on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Miami Dolphins
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Kalshi
on Miami Dolphins
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Cooper McDonald LBOut
  • Omarr Norman-Lott DTOut
  • Jimmy Holiday WROut

Miami Dolphins

  • Jaylen Wright RBQuestionable
  • Caleb Douglas WRQuestionable
  • Chop Robinson LBOut
  • Robert Beal Jr. DEQuestionable
  • Ronnie Harrison Jr. LBOut
  • Kyle Louis LBOut
Availability updated Sep 22, 12:08AM UTC — NFL availability is season-pending (off-season); treat as a placeholder until the season opens. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 9 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability9 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: sustained wind above ~15 mph and hard cold both drag NFL totals and kicking numbers down, while a key skill-position player being out shifts target and touch share to his backups.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineMiami Dolphins to winNo line posted

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs moneyline — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Point SpreadMiami Dolphins spreadNo line posted

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs spread — the live line, our model's read and how the free board has gone so far, tracked every game week on BetBetter.

Total PointsChiefs @ DolphinsUnder 45.5 -105
56%under %
10-3Free board · overs and unders
Last 107-3Home3-0Away7-3
Free board · recent overs and unders9-3

Miami Dolphins game total — on our free board this call has landed 10 of 13 times, updated every game week on BetBetter.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins — recent results

Miami Dolphins have won 0 of their last 5 games; Kansas City Chiefs have won 2 of their last 5.

Miami Dolphins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L13–35SFAway
L13–27LVAway
L12–17ATLHome
L3–26NYGHome
L7–20WSHAway
Kansas City Chiefs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W33–30INDHome
W31–10DENHome
D9–9SEAHome
L15–16TBAway
L12–20LARHome

Who’s out or in doubt

9 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Dolphins
PlayerStatus
Jaylen Wright RBQUESTIONABLE
Caleb Douglas WRQUESTIONABLE
Chop Robinson LBOUT
Robert Beal Jr. DEQUESTIONABLE
Ronnie Harrison Jr. LBOUT
Kyle Louis LBOUT
Kansas City Chiefs
PlayerStatus
Cooper McDonald LBOUT
Omarr Norman-Lott DTOUT
Jimmy Holiday WROUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins — where the money went

Since betting opened on Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, the market has moved away from Miami Dolphins across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Miami Dolphins▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Kansas City Chiefs▲ Money came for this
Spread — Miami Dolphins 10.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Kansas City Chiefs -10.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Miami Dolphins 11▲ Money came for this
Spread — Kansas City Chiefs -11▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 46.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 46.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins in the NFL. You may also see this matchup written as Chiefs vs Dolphins, or as Dolphins vs Chiefs. The next scheduled game is Sunday 27 September 2026 at Miami. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 4 meetings on record
Kansas City Chiefs 4–0 across the last 4 meetings · these games average 42.5 points (meetings on record since 2017)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Jan 2024Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs26–7Kansas City Chiefs
5 Nov 2023Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs21–14Kansas City Chiefs
13 Dec 2020Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins27–33Kansas City Chiefs
24 Dec 2017Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs29–13Kansas City Chiefs

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