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Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers

+15.2% Edge
Latest Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 15.5 -102 (1.98)
+15.2% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando
Mon 23 Mar, 11:00PM
Model Probability
65.7%
Implied Probability
50.5%
Model Edge
+15.2%
Predicted Value
18.3 Pts + Rebs

AI Analysis

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Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-102)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Indiana Pacers gear up to face the Orlando Magic, all eyes should be on Aaron Nesmith. His recent performances reveal a player on the rise, averaging 17.8 points and 2 rebounds in his last five road games. Given the Magic's defensive inconsistencies, particularly against wing players, Nesmith could thrive. While he averages about 11 points against Orlando when playing away, his overall numbers suggest he's finding his groove, with an expected stat value of 18.29 on this outing. And don't forget his solid 5.2 rebounds against the Magic historically-an area where he can capitalize. With a line set at 15.5 for points plus rebounds, and given Nesmith's upward trajectory, I see a clear path for him to surpass that mark. If he leans into his scoring and rebounding abilities, this could be the moment he delivers a standout performance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (10 picks) 100.0% (10/10)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over -102 ✓ HIT
23 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
17 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs 18.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT
21 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Across 10 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (10/10). The latest model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 15.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.2% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic on Monday 23 March at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.