Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
NBA

Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers

Value call

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) has one live pick today: over 14.5 pts rebs that pays $178 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
18.6 Pts + Rebs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.4% · the book's price implies 56.2% · gap +16.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Mon 23 Mar, 7:00 PM ET
Aaron Nesmith
over 14.5 pts rebs
Pts + Rebs Over 14.5 -128 (1.78) · $100→$178
Value call
HIGHWins about 72 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$17.80 Odds-128
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 14.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On Points + Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 56%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 6:48AM UTC
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs72.4%—56.2%1.38+16.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Aaron Nesmith is primed for a standout performance against the Orlando Magic, and betting on him to exceed 14.5 points and rebounds feels like a savvy move. Over his last five games, he's averaged a solid 15.6 points, clearly finding his rhythm. Even more compelling is his away form, where he's ramped it up to 17.8 points per game.Against the Magic, he's typically been effective, averaging 12.6 points per game, but his rebounding against them has been notable too, with 5.2 boards on average. Given that he's hit this combined total in three of his last four outings, there's a strong trend favoring him to go over tonight. With the pressure on and a favorable matchup, expect Nesmith to not just meet but exceed that 14.5 mark as he continues his impressive run on the road.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Aaron Nesmith — 2024-25 season averages

Over 55 games in the 2024-25 season, Aaron Nesmith averaged 12.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 25.8 minutes per game, shooting 50.9% from the field and 44.2% from three-point range.

12.5
PPG
4.4
RPG
1.3
APG
0.8
SPG
0.5
BPG
25.8
MPG
50.9%
FG%
44.2%
3P%

Aaron Nesmith — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Aaron Nesmith has played 29.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

29.0
MPG (L5)
14.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Aaron Nesmith — home vs away scoring

At home Aaron Nesmith averages 12.9 points per game; on the road, 12.1. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

12.9
PPG at home
12.1
PPG on the road

Aaron Nesmith — scoring by opponent

Aaron Nesmith scores most against the CLE, averaging 12.8 points per game in that matchup.

12.8
CLE
11.8
BOS
11.3
PHI
11.0
CHA
9.8
LAL
9.4
MIL

Aaron Nesmith — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Nesmith has averaged 14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 May@ CLE3713132
11 Mayvs CLE231214
9 Mayvs CLE27771
6 May@ CLE332341
4 May@ CLE251780
29 Aprvs MIL4119123
27 Apr@ MIL251450
25 Apr@ MIL271873
22 Aprvs MIL311622
19 Aprvs MIL27760
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
23 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over -102 ✓ HIT
17 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs 18.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT
19 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers — — — Pending
19 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
19 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 14.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic on Monday 23 March at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.