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The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 14.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +16.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NBA

Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers

+16.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 14.5 -128 (1.78)
+16.2% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Mon 23 Mar, 11:00PM
DAY-TO-DAY
Nesmith (neck) won't play Sunday against the Pistons.
updated Jun 16, 2:37PM UTC · 34d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+16.2%
Predicted Value
18.6 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs72.4%—56.2%1.38+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Aaron Nesmith is primed for a standout performance against the Orlando Magic, and betting on him to exceed 14.5 points and rebounds feels like a savvy move. Over his last five games, he's averaged a solid 15.6 points, clearly finding his rhythm. Even more compelling is his away form, where he's ramped it up to 17.8 points per game.Against the Magic, he's typically been effective, averaging 12.6 points per game, but his rebounding against them has been notable too, with 5.2 boards on average. Given that he's hit this combined total in three of his last four outings, there's a strong trend favoring him to go over tonight. With the pressure on and a favorable matchup, expect Nesmith to not just meet but exceed that 14.5 mark as he continues his impressive run on the road.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
2.7avg · last 10
L52.6Szn2.0Home2.0Away2.0Best7
1+87%
2+60%
3+33%
4+13%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.7 · hi 5 · lo 1
1442345121

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 2.7 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.0, best 7). He clears 2+ in 60% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
1.6avg · last 10
L51.6Szn1.3Home1.3Away1.3Best7
1+73%
3+13%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.6 · hi 4 · lo 0
0230301142

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 1.6 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.3, best 7). He clears 1+ in 73% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
21.1avg · last 10
L521.0Szn16.9Home17.5Away16.2Best38
7+91%
12+78%
17+47%
22+25%
27+11%
Game log vs O 16.5avg 21.1 · hi 31 · lo 13
13182519312527141326

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 21.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 16.9, best 38). He clears 17+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
22.7avg · last 10
L522.6Szn18.2Home18.8Away17.5Best45
8+91%
13+80%
18+47%
23+27%
28+15%
Game log vs O 17.5avg 22.7 · hi 34 · lo 13
13202819342528151728

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 22.7 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 18.2, best 45). He clears 18+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
8.1avg · last 10
L58.2Szn5.7Home5.9Away5.4Best19
3+87%
6+47%
9+9%
12+4%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 8.1 · hi 15 · lo 4
6410515858515

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 8.1 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.7, best 19). He clears 6+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Turnovers2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%under · L10
0.7avg · last 10
L50.8Szn0.8Home0.9Away0.7Best5
1+53%
2+22%
3+4%
Game log vs U 0.5avg 0.7 · hi 3 · lo 0
0120030010

Aaron Nesmith is averaging 0.7 turnovers over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.8, best 5). He clears 1+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs 14.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
23 Mar 26 Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic Pts + Rebs 15.5 Over -102 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists 2.5 Under -182 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Nesmith is Over 14.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic on Monday 23 March at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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