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NBA

Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers

+9.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Assists Under 2.5 -200 (1.50)
+9.8% Edge
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards
Capital One Arena, Washington
Sat 21 Feb, 12:00AM
Model Probability
76.4%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+9.8%
Predicted Value
1.1 Assists

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers) Under 2.5 Assists (-200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Aaron Nesmith's recent performance supports a bet for Under 2.5 assists in the upcoming game against the Washington Wizards. His average assists for the last five overall games is 1.2, which drops to just 0.4 when playing away. This trend is consistent even against the Wizards, with his average assists at 0.8 overall and 1.6 when playing at an away venue. Furthermore, Nesmith's expected stat value is only 1.14, significantly lower than the outcome point of 2.5. The data also shows a strong hit rate, with 13 out of the last 14 overall bets and all 11 of his last away bets hitting the under. This strong historical performance, coupled with his lower assist averages, indicates a good chance of Nesmith not surpassing 2.5 assists in the match.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (11 picks) 100.0% (11/11)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists 2.5 Under -200 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs + Asts 21.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers 2.5 Under -147 ✓ HIT
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Assists Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Rebs + Asts Pending
20 Feb 26 Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards 3-Pointers Pending

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