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Model picks & player props
Golden State Warriors
VS
Washington Wizards

Golden State Warriors vs Washington Wizards Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Capital One Arena, Washington
Indoor
Mon 16 Mar 2026, 11:00PM
14
Game Picks
1
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 101.5 (Team Total Points)
For Golden State Warriors vs Washington Wizards (NBA), model win probability 96.1%, fair odds 1.04, book price -556, model edge +11.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Mon 16 Mar 2026, 11:00PM at Capital One Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points
Over
102.5
+ 13 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Golden State Warriors

  • Jimmy Butler III FOut
  • Moses Moody GOut

Washington Wizards

  • Jamir Watkins GDay-to-day
  • Will Riley GDay-to-day
  • Tre Johnson GDay-to-day
  • AJ Dybantsa FDay-to-day
  • Alex Sarr CDay-to-day
  • Anthony Davis FDay-to-day
  • Trae Young GDay-to-day
  • Cam Whitmore FDay-to-day
  • Tristan Vukcevic FDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 1:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Golden State Warriors vs Washington Wizards: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Tristan Vukcevic Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsGolden State Warriors @ Washington WizardsNo line posted

Washington Wizards and Golden State Warriors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadWashington Wizards spreadNo line posted

Washington Wizards (season record) meet Golden State Warriors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineWashington Wizards to winNo line posted

Washington Wizards (season record) host or visit Golden State Warriors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Washington Wizards totalNo line posted

Washington Wizards averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Golden State Warriors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Golden State Warriors totalNo line posted

Golden State Warriors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Washington Wizards; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Tristan Vukcevic. Check out NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors stats and odds.</p>

Tristan Vukcevic (Washington Wizards) Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Washington Wizards prepare to face the Golden State Warriors, all eyes will be on Tristan Vukcevic, but betting on him to surpass 18.5 points and rebounds seems risky. His recent form shows a telling trend-he's hit the under in three of his last four outings and has been even more restrained at home, going under in seven of his last eight games at the Capital One Arena. The Warriors, despite their offensive firepower, play at a tempo that could limit Vukcevic's opportunities to rack up stats. Plus, given that his expected combined points and rebounds sit around 15, there's a decent cushion below that line. With the Wizards likely looking to spread the floor, Vukcevic may not find himself in the thick of the action, making the under a compelling play as the Wizards aim to control the pace and keep scoring in check.

Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors : Washington Wizards Over 102.5 Team Total Points (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Washington Wizards are set to square off against the Golden State Warriors, and there's a compelling case for the Wizards to put up more than 102.5 points. A look at recent trends shows the Wizards have been finding the net with high frequency. Their offensive showings have been remarkable, averaging significantly above our target of 102.5 points. In fact, the model prediction stands at a robust 115.84 points. This suggests the Wizards' offense might just be too hot for the Warriors' defense to handle, with an implied probability of this happening standing at a strong 84.0%. So, for those considering this bet, the Wizards' in-form offense could make backing them to score over 102.5 points a smart move indeed.

Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors : Washington Wizards Under 122.5 Team Total Points (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Taking a look at the upcoming Wizards vs. Warriors game, it appears a solid bet would be for the Wizards to score under 122.5 points. This isn't a shot at the Wizards' offensive prowess, but a closer look at the numbers gives a clear picture. Our model predicts a total of 115.84 points for the Wizards, considerably less than the 122.5 mark. This is not surprising considering that the Warriors have been a defensive force to reckon with this season. We're also factoring in the recent Wizards' scoring trend, which has largely been in line with our model's prediction. In essence, scoring more than 122.5 points against a defensively solid team like the Warriors is a tall order, even for a team as offensively gifted as the Wizards. So, it makes sense to stick with the under.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Golden State Warriors vs Washington Wizards in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Monday 16 March 2026 at Capital One Arena. The model has generated 14 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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