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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Brunson is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers.
On 3-Pointers, our numbers say this bet wins about 88 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 88%, implied 62%, edge +26.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 7:13PM UTC
NBA

Jalen Brunson

New York Knicks

+26.2% Edge
🔥 28 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
3-Pointers Under 4.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
+26.2% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 12:00AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Brunson is set to undergo surgery on his right wrist/forearm area Tuesday and is expected to require at least two months of rehab, Ian Begley of SportsNet New York reports.
updated Jul 7, 3:14PM UTC · 55d old
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
88 in 100
Predicted
2.6 3-Pointers
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.9% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap +26.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
3-Pointers87.9%61.7%1.14+26.2%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) Under 4.5 Threes Made (-161)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Knicks gear up to face off against the Hawks, targeting Jalen Brunson for under 4.5 threes made feels like a shrewd play. While Brunson has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he's more comfortable assisting than firing from deep. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 1.8 threes made, right in line with his home performances. Defensively, the Hawks are no slouches and have historically limited Brunson to only 1.8 threes at Madison Square Garden. With the stakes high in this matchup, expect him to focus more on playmaking rather than seeking his own shot from beyond the arc. The data shows he's hit this under in every game over the last 20 outings, boasting an impressive 100% hit rate. Given the current dynamics, it seems likely Brunson won't eclipse that 4.5 threshold tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Jalen Brunson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 76 games in the 2024-25 season, Jalen Brunson averaged 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists in 35.7 minutes per game, shooting 47.8% from the field and 37.9% from three-point range.

26.2
PPG
3.0
RPG
7.3
APG
0.9
SPG
0.1
BPG
35.7
MPG
47.8%
FG%
37.9%
3P%

Jalen Brunson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jalen Brunson has played 40.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

40.8
MPG (L5)
30.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jalen Brunson — points hit rate

Jalen Brunson has scored over 11.5 points in 47% of 283 career games.

o11.547%
o12.543%
o15.525%

Jalen Brunson — home vs away scoring

At home Jalen Brunson averages 25.8 points per game; on the road, 26.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.8
PPG at home
26.7
PPG on the road

Jalen Brunson — scoring by opponent

Jalen Brunson scores most against the DET, averaging 25.5 points per game in that matchup.

25.5
DET
24.9
IND
24.3
MIL
23.9
PHI
22.9
WSH
22.9
CHI

Jalen Brunson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Brunson has averaged 30.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
12 Mayvs BOS4039512
10 Mayvs BOS402747
7 May@ BOS381737
5 May@ BOS442945
1 May@ DET424047
29 Aprvs DET361637
27 Apr@ DET3932511
24 Apr@ DET393079
21 Aprvs DET443737
19 Aprvs DET403428
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Mar 26 New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Pts + Rebs + Asts 39.5 Over +235 ✗ MISS
04 Mar 26 New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Pts + Asts 30.5 Over -122 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Rebounds 2.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
28 Feb 26 New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks 3-Pointers Pending
28 Feb 26 New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending
28 Feb 26 New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks Points Pending

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About This Player

Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jalen Brunson is currently on a 28-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jalen Brunson is Under 4.5 on 3-Pointers. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.2% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks on Tuesday 21 April at Madison Square Garden, New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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