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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Brunson is Under 37.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +43.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:54AM UTC
NBA

Jalen Brunson

New York Knicks

+43.1% Edge
🔥 25 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Under 37.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+43.1% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 12:00AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Brunson is set to undergo surgery on his right wrist/forearm area Tuesday and is expected to require at least two months of rehab, Ian Begley of SportsNet New York reports.
updated Jul 7, 3:14PM UTC · 34d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
97.7%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+43.1%
Predicted Value
25.9 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points97.7%54.6%1.02+43.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) Under 37.5 Points (-120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Knicks prepare to face the Hawks, Jalen Brunson's scoring might not reach the lofty heights of 37.5 points. Despite having a solid home average of 25.2 points over his last five games, his overall trend against the Hawks suggests a different narrative. Historically, Brunson has netted just 23.2 points on average in Madison Square Garden when matched against Atlanta, and the pressure of a high-stakes game could lead to a more team-oriented approach.Moreover, his recent form shows a hit rate of 20 for 20 on unders, and at home, he's hit the under in his last ten outings. With the Knicks likely to emphasize ball movement and defense, it's reasonable to expect Brunson to stay under this inflated mark. Betting on the under could be a savvy play as he finds his rhythm without necessarily needing to be in the spotlight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Jalen Brunson — 2024-25 season averages

Over 76 games in the 2024-25 season, Jalen Brunson averaged 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists in 35.7 minutes per game, shooting 47.8% from the field and 37.9% from three-point range.

26.2
PPG
3.0
RPG
7.3
APG
0.9
SPG
0.1
BPG
35.7
MPG
47.8%
FG%
37.9%
3P%

Jalen Brunson — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jalen Brunson has played 40.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

40.8
MPG (L5)
30.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jalen Brunson — points hit rate

Jalen Brunson has scored over 11.5 points in 47% of 283 career games.

o11.547%
o12.543%
o15.525%

Jalen Brunson — home vs away scoring

At home Jalen Brunson averages 25.8 points per game; on the road, 26.7. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

25.8
PPG at home
26.7
PPG on the road

Jalen Brunson — scoring by opponent

Jalen Brunson scores most against the DET, averaging 25.5 points per game in that matchup.

25.5
DET
24.9
IND
24.3
MIL
23.9
PHI
22.9
WSH
22.9
CHI

Jalen Brunson — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Brunson has averaged 30.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
12 Mayvs BOS4039512
10 Mayvs BOS402747
7 May@ BOS381737
5 May@ BOS442945
1 May@ DET424047
29 Aprvs DET361637
27 Apr@ DET3932511
24 Apr@ DET393079
21 Aprvs DET443737
19 Aprvs DET403428
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Points 37.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks 3-Pointers 4.5 Under -161 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Rebounds 4.5 Under -105 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs + Asts Pending
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs Pending
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pts + Asts Pending

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About This Player

Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jalen Brunson is currently on a 25-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jalen Brunson is Under 37.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +43.1% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks on Tuesday 21 April at Madison Square Garden, New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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