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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalen Brunson is Under 40.5 on Pts + Rebs.
On the Pts + Rebs market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 51%, for a model edge of +42.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

Jalen Brunson

New York Knicks

+42.2% Edge
🔥 25 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Under 40.5 -102 (1.98)
+42.2% Edge
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY · Indoor
Tue 21 Apr, 12:00AM
DAY-TO-DAY
Brunson is set to undergo surgery on his right wrist/forearm area Tuesday and is expected to require at least two months of rehab, Ian Begley of SportsNet New York reports.
updated Jul 7, 3:14PM UTC · 13d old
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Model Probability
92.7%
Implied Probability
50.5%
Model Edge
+42.2%
Predicted Value
30.4 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs92.7%—50.5%1.08+42.2%

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AI Analysis

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Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds (-102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Knicks gear up to face the Hawks, all eyes will be on Jalen Brunson, but betting under 40.5 on his combined points and rebounds makes a lot of sense. Despite being a solid contributor, Brunson's recent averages suggest he might not hit that lofty total. Over his last five games, he's been netting about 22.6 points and grabbing 2.8 rebounds, which collectively puts him under that threshold. At home, he's stepped it up slightly with 25.2 points, yet his rebounds dwindle to only 1.2. Historically, against the Hawks, he's averaged just 23.2 points and 2.8 boards at Madison Square Garden. Given his perfect hit rate of 20 for 20 on the under across his last matches, the trends suggest he may struggle to surpass 40.5 against a tough Atlanta defense. It's a calculated play that feels right in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
2.9avg · last 10
L53.4Szn2.4Home2.3Away2.5Best9
1+84%
2+63%
3+50%
4+25%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 2.9 · hi 5 · lo 1
2414135234

Jalen Brunson is averaging 2.9 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.4, best 9). He clears 2+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
8.0avg · last 10
L57.6Szn7.3Home7.7Away7.0Best17
3+97%
5+87%
7+61%
9+32%
11+12%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 8 · hi 12 · lo 5
879117757712

Jalen Brunson is averaging 8.0 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.3, best 17). He clears 7+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
30.1avg · last 10
L530.4Szn26.2Home25.8Away26.7Best61
16+87%
21+74%
26+53%
31+34%
36+20%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 30.1 · hi 40 · lo 16
34373032164029172739

Jalen Brunson is averaging 30.1 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.2, best 61). He clears 26+ in 53% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
38.1avg · last 10
L538.0Szn33.6Home33.5Away33.6Best67
24+84%
29+68%
34+49%
39+34%
44+17%
Game log vs O 33.5avg 38.1 · hi 51 · lo 23
42443943234734243451

Jalen Brunson is averaging 38.1 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 33.6, best 67). He clears 34+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
34.1avg · last 10
L534.4Szn29.2Home28.6Away29.9Best65
19+87%
24+74%
29+47%
34+37%
39+17%
Game log vs O 28.5avg 34.1 · hi 44 · lo 19
36403737194433203144

Jalen Brunson is averaging 34.1 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.2, best 65). He clears 29+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
42.1avg · last 10
L542.0Szn36.6Home36.3Away36.9Best71
27+82%
32+66%
37+49%
42+34%
47+20%
Game log vs O 36.5avg 42.1 · hi 56 · lo 26
44474648265138273856

Jalen Brunson is averaging 42.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 36.6, best 71). He clears 37+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
90%hit · L10
4.0avg · last 10
L54.0Szn3.0Home2.8Away3.2Best11
1+97%
3+61%
5+18%
7+4%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 4 · hi 7 · lo 2
2375344345

Jalen Brunson is averaging 4.0 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.0, best 11). He clears 3+ in 61% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs 40.5 Under -102 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pts + Asts 43.5 Under -105 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Points 37.5 Under -120 ✓ HIT
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks 3-Pointers — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Rebounds — — — Pending
21 Apr 26 Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jalen Brunson is currently on a 25-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jalen Brunson is Under 40.5 on Pts + Rebs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +42.2% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks on Tuesday 21 April at Madison Square Garden, New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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