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Model picks & player props
Dallas Mavericks
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
9
Game Picks
8
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Minnesota Timberwolves -18.5 (Point Spread)
For Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA), model win probability 90.6%, fair odds 1.10, book price -139, model edge +32.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Point Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves
-13.5
+ 8 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Minnesota TimberwolvesPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TimberwolvesPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Dallas Mavericks

  • Morez Johnson Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
  • Naji Marshall FDay-to-day
  • Cooper Flagg FDay-to-day
  • P.J. Washington FDay-to-day
  • Caleb Martin FDay-to-day
  • Kyrie Irving GDay-to-day

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Joan Beringer FDay-to-day
  • Donte DiVincenzo GOut
Availability updated Jul 18, 2:41AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Donte DiVincenzo Minnesota Timberwolves Points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Anthony Edwards Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rudy Gobert Minnesota Timberwolves Blocks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Julius Randle Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Julius Randle Minnesota Timberwolves Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsDallas Mavericks @ Minnesota TimberwolvesNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMinnesota Timberwolves spreadNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves (season record) meet Dallas Mavericks; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMinnesota Timberwolves to winNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves (season record) host or visit Dallas Mavericks; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Minnesota Timberwolves totalNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Minnesota Timberwolves; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves — model preview

<p>Latest NBA betting preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Anthony Edwards. Keywords: NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks stats and odds.</p>

Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Anthony Edwards to score over 30.5 points and rebounds combined is justified by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Edwards has averaged 23 points and 7.4 rebounds, totaling 30.4. This is just below the target, but his performance at home games is even better, with an average of 22.2 points and 8.6 rebounds, totaling 30.8. Additionally, his averages against the Dallas Mavericks - 28.2 points and 7.6 rebounds, totaling 35.8 - suggest that he performs well against this specific team. Also, over the last 14 games, Edwards has exceeded this total in 8 games, which increases to 8 out of 13 when considering only home games. Considering these statistics, Edwards is likely to surpass the 30.5 points and rebounds combined in this game.

Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 0.5 Blocks (-200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data points in favour of a bet on Rudy Gobert achieving over 0.5 blocks in the game between Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks. Gobert's average number of blocks across the last five games is 1, which already doubles the targeted outcome point. This performance is consistent both at home games (1.2 blocks) and specifically against this opponent (1.2 blocks). Even when considering games against this opponent at home, Gobert still has an average of 1 block. Furthermore, his recent performance has been reliable, with a hit rate of 100% both in the last eight games overall and the last three home games. This historical data suggests a high likelihood of Gobert achieving more than 0.5 blocks in the upcoming game.

Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 0.5 Steals (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

This bet on Anthony Edwards for Over 0.5 steals in the Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks game is supported by several key statistics. Edwards' performance at home is particularly impressive, with an average of 1.8 steals in the last five home games, and a hit rate of 83.3% (10/12) in the last 12 home games. While his overall average steals in the last five games is slightly lower at 0.4, he has consistently performed better at home, which is the current game's location. Moreover, when facing the Mavericks, his average steals are 0.6, both at home and overall, exceeding the bet's outcome point. These consistent performances indicate a high likelihood of Edwards achieving more than 0.5 steals in the upcoming game.

Julius Randle (New York Knicks) Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Julius Randle to achieve over 26.5 in points, rebounds, and assists is supported by a combination of his recent performance and his past record against the Dallas Mavericks. In the last five home games, Randle's averaged 20 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, totaling 31.4, well over the 26.5 target. In addition, Randle's average against the Mavericks, regardless of venue, is also higher than the target, at 38.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists. The fact that he has exceeded the target in 12 of the last 14 games overall, and 8 out of the last 9 home games, further supports the likelihood of this outcome. This data suggests that Randle's performance is consistently strong in these areas, making the over 26.5 bet a promising one.

Julius Randle (New York Knicks) Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on the Under 10.5 for Julius Randle's combined Rebounds + Assists is based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Randle's average for overall rebounds is only 5.8 and for assists it's just 3. That totals 8.8, which is well under the 10.5 mark. Even when considering his home game statistics, his combined average for rebounds and assists is 11.4, which is just slightly over the betting line. His performance against the Dallas Mavericks also supports this bet, as his combined average for rebounds and assists in these matchups is 14.8, with a lower average of 11 at home. Considering these statistics, it's more likely that Randle will finish with less than 10.5 combined rebounds and assists in this game.

Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves) Under 1.5 Blocks (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Rudy Gobert for Under 1.5 blocks in the Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks game is backed by his consistent performance statistics. Gobert's average blocks over the last five games, both overall and at home, have been lower than the bet point of 1.5, with averages of 1 and 1.2 respectively. Even when facing the Mavericks, Gobert's average blocks are only 1.2 overall and reduce to 1 when playing at home. His overall hit rate in the last seven games and home hit rate in the last four games further support the under bet, as he's consistently blocking less than 1.5 times per game. These stats suggest that the chances of Gobert exceeding 1.5 blocks are statistically low, making the Under 1.5 bet a solid choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA. The model has generated 9 game picks and 8 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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