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The latest Bet Better model pick for Santi Aldama is Over 16.5 on Points + Rebounds.
On the Points + Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 64%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +7.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:13AM UTC
NBA

Santi Aldama

Memphis Grizzlies

+7.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs Over 16.5 -127 (1.79) · $100→$179
+7.8% Edge
Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN · Indoor
Wed 4 Mar, 1:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
63.7%
Implied Probability
55.9%
Model Edge
+7.8%
Predicted Value
19.0 Pts + Rebs

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs63.7%—55.9%1.57+7.8%

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AI Analysis

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Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-127)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ah, Santi Aldama - the Spaniard sensation of the Memphis Grizzlies. His performance on the court is a sight to behold, and his stats back it up. You see, Aldama's been steadily racking up an impressive average of 13.2 points and 6.4 rebounds overall in his last 5 games. Even on the road, he's held his own, posting 9.6 points and 4.6 rebounds. And let's not forget his face-offs with the Timberwolves - he's averaged a respectable 9.2 points and 4.6 rebounds against them. Given his recent hot streak - hitting the mark in 2 of his last 3 games and 11 of his last 19 away games - I'm putting my money on Aldama to go over 16.5 points + rebounds in the upcoming game. So, if you're looking for a promising prop bet, I'd say Aldama's your guy.

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Pick History & Track Record

Santi Aldama — 2024-25 season averages

Over 71 games in the 2024-25 season, Santi Aldama averaged 12.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 25.9 minutes per game, shooting 48.4% from the field and 37.0% from three-point range.

12.5
PPG
6.4
RPG
2.8
APG
0.7
SPG
0.4
BPG
25.9
MPG
48.4%
FG%
37.0%
3P%

Santi Aldama — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Santi Aldama has played 30.0 minutes per game and started 20% of them.

30.0
MPG (L5)
12.6
PPG (L5)
20%
Started

Santi Aldama — home vs away scoring

At home Santi Aldama averages 13.1 points per game; on the road, 11.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

13.1
PPG at home
11.9
PPG on the road

Santi Aldama — scoring by opponent

Santi Aldama scores most against the OKC, averaging 12.8 points per game in that matchup.

12.8
OKC
12.5
GS
12.3
SA
11.5
POR
10.5
LAC
9.0
PHX

Santi Aldama — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Santi Aldama has averaged 11.0 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
26 Aprvs OKC402393
24 Aprvs OKC311461
22 Apr@ OKC311050
20 Apr@ OKC19543
18 Aprvs DAL291143
15 Apr@ GS271482
11 Apr@ DEN25834
10 Aprvs MIN30545
8 Apr@ CHA251132
5 Apr@ DET24952
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Santi Aldama is Over 16.5 on Points + Rebounds. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday 4 March at Target Center, Minneapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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