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Model picks & player props
Golden State Warriors
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves

Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
Target Center, Minneapolis
Indoor
Tue 27 Jan 2026, 2:30AM
6
Game Picks
11
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 111.5 (Team Total Points)
For Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA), model win probability 91.1%, fair odds 1.10, book price -455, model edge +9.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 27 Jan 2026, 2:30AM at Target Center.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points
Over
111.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Minnesota TimberwolvesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Golden State Warriors

  • Jimmy Butler III FOut
  • Moses Moody GOut

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Joan Beringer FDay-to-day
  • Donte DiVincenzo GOut
Availability updated Jul 18, 2:35AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 4 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability4 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Rudy Gobert Minnesota Timberwolves Blocks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rudy Gobert Minnesota Timberwolves Pts + Rebs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Moses Moody Golden State Warriors 3-Pointers 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brandin Podziemski Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs + Asts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jaden McDaniels Minnesota Timberwolves Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsGolden State Warriors @ Minnesota TimberwolvesNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMinnesota Timberwolves spreadNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves (season record) meet Golden State Warriors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMinnesota Timberwolves to winNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves (season record) host or visit Golden State Warriors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Minnesota Timberwolves totalNo line posted

Minnesota Timberwolves averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Golden State Warriors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Golden State Warriors totalNo line posted

Golden State Warriors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Minnesota Timberwolves; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Draymond Green. Explore NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors stats and odds.</p>

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Over 8.5 Points (-132)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Draymond Green's statistical performance over recent games supports this Over 8.5 points bet. He has consistently been scoring above this benchmark, averaging 10.6 points over his last five games overall and 12 points over his last five away games. This indicates that Green is comfortable with the away environment and his performance isn't hindered by it. Additionally, his average points against the Timberwolves, 10.6, is also above the betting line of 8.5. His performance against this specific opponent in away games is even more promising, averaging 11.8 points. His hit rate also gives us confidence in this bet, hitting the over in five of the last six games overall and all of the last four away games. These statistics make a strong case for betting Over 8.5 on Green's points in the upcoming game.

Moses Moody (Golden State Warriors) Under 3.5 Rebounds (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Moses Moody for Under 3.5 rebounds in the Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors game is primarily backed by his recent rebounding performance. Over the last five games, Moody has averaged less than one rebound (0.8) overall and only 3 rebounds when playing away games. These numbers are significantly lower than the 3.5 rebound threshold set for this bet, suggesting that it's unlikely for Moody to exceed this mark. Furthermore, when specifically facing the Timberwolves, Moody's rebounding averages drop even further to 0.8 and 1.8 rebounds for overall and away games respectively. Lastly, Moody's under 3.5 rebounds bet has hit 7/7 times in the last seven games overall and 4/4 times in the last four away games, indicating a strong trend in favor of the under.

Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves) Under 17.5 Points + Assists (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 17.5 bet for Jaden McDaniels in the upcoming Timberwolves vs Warriors game is supported by his recent performance statistics. McDaniels' average contribution in points and assists across the last five games, both overall and at home, is consistently below the set outcome point of 17.5. His L5 overall points and assists average is 15.2, and at home, it's even lower at 16.6. Furthermore, against this specific opponent, his averages further reduce to 14.6 overall and 15 at home. Additionally, McDaniels has consistently hit under the outcome point in his recent games, with a hit rate of 9 out of 11 games overall and 4 out of 5 at home. All these statistics indicate that McDaniels is more likely to score under 17.5 points plus assists in the upcoming game.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors : Minnesota Timberwolves win (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a solid bet for the Moneyline market in their game against the Golden State Warriors. Despite the Warriors' slightly better away record and higher team score, the Timberwolves have been impressive at home, winning three out of their last five games. The head-to-head record indicates an even competition, with both teams securing two wins each in their last five encounters. This suggests that the Timberwolves can hold their own against the Warriors. Additionally, their implied probability of 71.9% suggests a strong likelihood of victory. Although the Timberwolves score less, they have shown consistent performance, which combined with their home advantage, could tip the scales in their favour. In conclusion, based on past performance and current data, the Timberwolves are a reasonable choice for this bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
27 Jan 26 Moneyline Minnesota Timberwolves ✓ HIT
27 Jan 26 Team Total Points Over 111.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 January 2026 at Target Center. The model has generated 6 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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