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The latest Bet Better model pick for Pat Spencer is Over 5.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 47%, edge +23.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:22PM UTC
NBA

Pat Spencer

Golden State Warriors

+23.3% Edge
🔥 4 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 5.5 +114 (2.14) · $100→$214
+23.3% Edge
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Mon 6 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
8.5 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.0% · the book's price implies 46.7% · gap +23.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points70.0%—46.7%1.43+23.3%

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AI Analysis

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Pat Spencer (Golden State Warriors) Over 5.5 Points (+114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Houston Rockets, all eyes should be on Pat Spencer. With the home crowd on his side, Spencer has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 10 points in his last five games. Specifically, against the Rockets, he's put up an average of 7.2 points, but that number jumps to 10 when playing at home.What's truly impressive is his recent form; he's hit the over on 5.5 points in all four of his last outings, showcasing a perfect record. Plus, he's done so effortlessly at home, going 3-for-3 in his last three games. Given his expected stat value of 8.55 and a model edge of 23.3%, it seems like a no-brainer to back Spencer to continue his scoring streak. With the crowd roaring, the over on 5.5 points feels like a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Pat Spencer — 2024-25 season averages

Over 46 games in the 2024-25 season, Pat Spencer averaged 2.9 points, 1.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 6.7 minutes per game, shooting 45.2% from the field and 25.0% from three-point range.

2.9
PPG
1.2
RPG
1.2
APG
0.4
SPG
0.1
BPG
6.7
MPG
45.2%
FG%
25.0%
3P%

Pat Spencer — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Pat Spencer has played 6.4 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

6.4
MPG (L5)
2.4
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Pat Spencer — home vs away scoring

At home Pat Spencer averages 1.9 points per game; on the road, 3.8. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

1.9
PPG at home
3.8
PPG on the road

Pat Spencer — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Pat Spencer has averaged 4.4 points, 1.2 rebounds and 1.1 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
12 Mayvs MIN5200
8 May@ MIN14021
6 May@ MIN11420
4 May@ HOU0000
2 Mayvs HOU2611
30 Apr@ HOU141142
23 Apr@ HOU121111
11 Apr@ POR3000
8 Apr@ PHX121024
6 Aprvs HOU2002
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Rebounds 3.5 Under -147 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors 3-Pointers 1.5 Under -270 ✓ HIT
22 Feb 26 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors 3-Pointers 1.5 Under -238 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Pat Spencer (Golden State Warriors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Pat Spencer is currently on a 4-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Pat Spencer is Over 5.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.3% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors on Monday 6 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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