Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pat Spencer is Over 5.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 47%, for a model edge of +23.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NBA

Pat Spencer

Golden State Warriors

+23.3% Edge
🔥 4 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 5.5 +114 (2.14)
+23.3% Edge
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, San Francisco, CA · Indoor
Mon 6 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.0%
Implied Probability
46.7%
Model Edge
+23.3%
Predicted Value
8.5 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points70.0%—46.7%1.43+23.3%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Pat Spencer (Golden State Warriors) Over 5.5 Points (+114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Houston Rockets, all eyes should be on Pat Spencer. With the home crowd on his side, Spencer has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 10 points in his last five games. Specifically, against the Rockets, he's put up an average of 7.2 points, but that number jumps to 10 when playing at home.What's truly impressive is his recent form; he's hit the over on 5.5 points in all four of his last outings, showcasing a perfect record. Plus, he's done so effortlessly at home, going 3-for-3 in his last three games. Given his expected stat value of 8.55 and a model edge of 23.3%, it seems like a no-brainer to back Spencer to continue his scoring streak. With the crowd roaring, the over on 5.5 points feels like a solid bet.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.3avg · last 10
L50.0Szn0.1Home0.0Away0.2Best2
1+11%
2+2%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.3 · hi 2 · lo 0
0201000000

Pat Spencer is averaging 0.3 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.1, best 2). He clears 1+ in 11% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
4.4avg · last 10
L52.4Szn2.9Home1.9Away3.8Best17
3+33%
8+11%
13+4%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 4.4 · hi 11 · lo 0
0100111160402

Pat Spencer is averaging 4.4 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.9, best 17). He clears 3+ in 33% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
1.2avg · last 10
L51.0Szn1.2Home1.3Away1.2Best5
1+57%
3+17%
5+2%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.2 · hi 4 · lo 0
0201410220

Pat Spencer is averaging 1.2 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.2, best 5). He clears 1+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Points 5.5 Over +114 ✓ HIT
06 Apr 26 Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Points 4.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors 3-Pointers 1.5 Under -270 ✓ HIT
01 Mar 26 Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Rebounds — — — Pending
22 Feb 26 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors 3-Pointers — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Pat Spencer (Golden State Warriors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Pat Spencer is currently on a 4-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Pat Spencer is Over 5.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.3% on this pick. Their next game is Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors on Monday 6 April at Chase Center, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks