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Model picks & player props
Golden State Warriors
VS
Memphis Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:21AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
FedExForum, Memphis
Indoor
Thu 26 Feb 2026, 12:30AM
2
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Memphis Grizzlies (Moneyline)
For Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies (NBA), model win probability 46.5%, fair odds 2.15, book price +150, model edge +6.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 26 Feb 2026, 12:30AM at FedExForum.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Memphis Grizzlies
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Memphis GrizzliesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Golden State Warriors

  • Jimmy Butler III FOut
  • Moses Moody GOut

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Walter Clayton Jr. GDay-to-day
  • Karim Lopez FDay-to-day
  • GG Jackson FDay-to-day
  • Richie Saunders GOut
  • Jaylen Wells FDay-to-day
  • Zach Edey CDay-to-day
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope GDay-to-day
  • Cam Spencer GDay-to-day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr. GDay-to-day
  • Ty Jerome GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 20, 1:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ty Jerome Cleveland Cavaliers Assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Gary Payton II Golden State Warriors Rebounds 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsGolden State Warriors @ Memphis GrizzliesNo line posted

Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadMemphis Grizzlies spreadNo line posted

Memphis Grizzlies (season record) meet Golden State Warriors; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineMemphis Grizzlies to winNo line posted

Memphis Grizzlies (season record) host or visit Golden State Warriors; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Memphis Grizzlies totalNo line posted

Memphis Grizzlies averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Golden State Warriors; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)Golden State Warriors totalNo line posted

Golden State Warriors averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Memphis Grizzlies; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning bets for Memphis Grizzlies playing Golden State Warriors. Includes analysis on key players like Gary Payton II. Analysis includes NBA predictions, NBA game picks, betting preview, Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors stats and odds.</p>

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors : Memphis Grizzlies win (+150)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When the Memphis Grizzlies host the Golden State Warriors, it's going to be a showdown. Both teams have shown similar form against each other recently, sharing a 2-2 record in their last four encounters. But, here’s the kicker that tilts the scales in favor of Memphis - their home performance. The Grizzlies have a commendable 4-1 record in their last 5 home games, a strong indicator of their comfort on home turf. They've also been scoring an impressive 124.6 points per game at home, a tad below the Warriors' away score of 126.8, but enough to keep the competition fierce. The Warriors may have a slight edge in recent form, but given the Grizzlies' compelling home performance, it's tough not to back the home team. So, let's ride with the Grizzlies on the Moneyline.

Gary Payton II (Golden State Warriors) Under 4.5 Rebounds (-172)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Get ready to take a leap with me on this one, folks! We're eyeing Gary Payton II and his rebounding game as the Golden State Warriors face off with the Memphis Grizzlies on this fine Thursday evening. Now, don't get me wrong, Payton's a solid player, but his recent rebounding numbers hint at a less impressive performance tonight. In his last five games, Payton II's been pulling down an average of just two rebounds, and that number sinks even lower to 1.6 when he's playing on the road. Even against the Grizzlies, a team he knows well, his rebound average barely creeps above two. His golden streak of hitting the under 4.5 rebounds in 7 of his last 8 away games only adds fuel to our bet. So, my savvy punters, it's clear we've got the data in our corner. Tonight, we're betting on Payton's rebounding prowess to stay under the

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors : Memphis Grizzlies Under 122.5 Team Total Points (-714)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Memphis Grizzlies have been struggling to light up the scoreboard as of late, with their overall last five-game score sitting at 118.8. Now, they face the Golden State Warriors, a team known for its defensive prowess. While the Grizzlies have shown a bit more scoring power at home, averaging 124.6 points, it's important to note that the model prediction is considerably lower at 110.83. This suggests that the Grizzlies might find it tough to reach that 122.5 point mark. Their recent home record (4-1) shows they are comfortable on their court, but the Warriors' defense might disrupt their rhythm. Plus, their overall home and away record is only 2-3, an indication that they're not exactly on a hot streak. Betting the under on this one seems like a smart play.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
26 Feb 26 Team Total Points Under 122.5 ✓ HIT
26 Feb 26 Moneyline Memphis Grizzlies ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 26 February 2026 at FedExForum. The model has generated 2 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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