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Model picks & player props
New Orleans Pelicans
VS
Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 2:31AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NBA
5
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline +142

The model graded 5 markets for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks (NBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $242 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win58.9%
The price says41.3%
Best price+142
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New Orleans Pelicans Lean59% chance +142
Spread High67% chance
Spread Lean59% chance
Total Points High97% chance
Team Total High86% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New Orleans Pelicans
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New Orleans PelicansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New Orleans PelicansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Dallas MavericksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Micah Peavy GDay-to-day
  • Bryce McGowens GDay-to-day

Dallas Mavericks

  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Kyrie Irving GDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
Availability updated Aug 19, 5:24PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 5 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability5 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsNew Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas MavericksNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDallas Mavericks spreadNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) meet New Orleans Pelicans; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDallas Mavericks to winNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) host or visit New Orleans Pelicans; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New Orleans Pelicans; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)New Orleans Pelicans totalNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks — 5 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks — recent results

Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5 games; New Orleans Pelicans have won 1 of their last 5.

Dallas Mavericks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W149–128CHIHome
L120–139SAAway
L107–112PHXAway
L103–116LACAway
W134–128LALHome
New Orleans Pelicans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L126–132MINAway
L118–144BOSAway
W156–137UTAHHome
L108–112ORLHome
L113–117SACAway

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Dallas Mavericks won 0, New Orleans Pelicans won 1.

DateDallas MavericksNew Orleans PelicansWinner
Mar 17111129New Orleans Pelicans

Who’s out or in doubt

5 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Dallas Mavericks
PlayerStatus
Santi Aldama FDAY-TO-DAY
Kyrie Irving GDAY-TO-DAY
Dereck Lively II CDAY-TO-DAY
New Orleans Pelicans
PlayerStatus
Micah Peavy GDAY-TO-DAY
Bryce McGowens GDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks — model preview

Deep dive into Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans Under 125.5 Team Total Points (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'New Orleans Pelicans Under 125.5' in the Team Total Points (Alternate) market is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the model prediction suggests the Pelicans will score around 113.57 points, considerably below the 125.5 point line. Additionally, the Pelicans' recent performance data reinforce this prediction. Over their last five games (both overall and away), they have averaged scores of 116.8 and 115.8 points respectively, both notably below the betting line. Furthermore, their opponents in those away games have only managed an average of 104.2 points, indicating strong Pelicans defence. Therefore, given this consistent underperformance relative to the 125.5 point line, it is statistically reasonable to bet on the 'New Orleans Pelicans Under 125.5'.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. You may also see this matchup written as Pelicans vs Mavericks, or as Mavericks vs Pelicans. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
New Orleans Pelicans 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
17 Mar 2026Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans129–111New Orleans Pelicans
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