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Model picks & player props
New Orleans Pelicans
VS
Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

NBA
5
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New Orleans Pelicans (Moneyline)
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks (NBA), model win probability 58.9%, fair odds 1.70, book price +142, model edge +17.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New Orleans Pelicans
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New Orleans PelicansMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New Orleans PelicansPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Dallas MavericksPoint SpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Micah Peavy GDay-to-day
  • Karlo Matkovic FDay-to-day
  • Zion Williamson FDay-to-day
  • Dejounte Murray GDay-to-day
  • Trey Murphy III FDay-to-day
  • Yves Missi CDay-to-day
  • Bryce McGowens GDay-to-day

Dallas Mavericks

  • Morez Johnson Jr. FDay-to-day
  • Santi Aldama FDay-to-day
  • Dereck Lively II CDay-to-day
  • Naji Marshall FDay-to-day
  • Cooper Flagg FDay-to-day
  • P.J. Washington FDay-to-day
  • Caleb Martin FDay-to-day
  • Kyrie Irving GDay-to-day
Availability updated Jul 19, 2:57AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Betting angles

Markets & form
Total PointsNew Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas MavericksNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans combine for their season scoring; the game total posts pre-tip.

Point SpreadDallas Mavericks spreadNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) meet New Orleans Pelicans; the spread and model cover probability refresh when the game is scheduled.

MoneylineDallas Mavericks to winNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks (season record) host or visit New Orleans Pelicans; moneyline odds and win probability refresh when the season resumes.

Team Total (Home)Dallas Mavericks totalNo line posted

Dallas Mavericks averaged their season scoring ahead of facing New Orleans Pelicans; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

Team Total (Away)New Orleans Pelicans totalNo line posted

New Orleans Pelicans averaged their season scoring ahead of facing Dallas Mavericks; team-total lines refresh pre-game.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, NBA parlay odds.</p>

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans Under 125.5 Team Total Points (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'New Orleans Pelicans Under 125.5' in the Team Total Points (Alternate) market is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the model prediction suggests the Pelicans will score around 113.57 points, considerably below the 125.5 point line. Additionally, the Pelicans' recent performance data reinforce this prediction. Over their last five games (both overall and away), they have averaged scores of 116.8 and 115.8 points respectively, both notably below the betting line. Furthermore, their opponents in those away games have only managed an average of 104.2 points, indicating strong Pelicans defence. Therefore, given this consistent underperformance relative to the 125.5 point line, it is statistically reasonable to bet on the 'New Orleans Pelicans Under 125.5'.

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans 4.5 (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on New Orleans Pelicans at 4.5 points in the Point Spread market is well supported by recent performance statistics. Over the last five games, the Pelicans have a better overall record (3-2) compared to the Mavericks (1-4), indicating a stronger recent form. Furthermore, the Pelicans' defensive performance on the road is noteworthy, only conceding 104.2 points per game, significantly less than the Mavericks' 123.2 points per game conceded at home. This strong defensive performance could help them keep the game close or even win outright, thus covering the point spread. Although the Mavericks have a slightly higher average score, their recent form and defensive weaknesses make the Pelicans at 4.5 a strong choice.

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans : New Orleans Pelicans win (+142)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The New Orleans Pelicans are a strong bet for the Moneyline market in their game against the Dallas Mavericks. The Pelicans have a more favorable recent record, holding a 3-2 record in their last five away games compared to the Mavericks' 1-4 home record. This indicates that the Pelicans are performing better in away games than the Mavericks are at home. Additionally, both teams have an equal record when playing against each other, making the competition level balanced. Although the Mavericks have a slightly higher team score in their last five games, the Pelicans have shown they can compete, with only a small difference in their away team scores. This solid performance on the road, combined with the Mavericks' struggling home record, suggests the Pelicans have a strong chance of winning.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
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Total Picks
Hit Rate

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks in the NBA. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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